Africa poised to expand at faster rate than China amid res ist ance to shocks 

IMF expects con tin ent’s GDP growth to out pace rival as reforms and eco nomic diversity bring gains Financial Times Europe 22 Oct 2026 DAVID PILLING — LONDON Much of that optim ism foundered on over bor row ing, poor gov ernance and con sump tion, tip ping the con tin ent’s biggest eco nom ies, includ ing Nigeria and South Africa, into stag na tion. Today, however, a quieter — many would say more real istic — nar rat ive has taken shape, one of a con tin ent res ist ant to shocks that is grow ing stead ily. At its annual meet ing in Bangkok this month, the IMF said Africa would expand at 4.6 per cent — 0.1 per cent age points above China. It would be the first time African growth had out paced China in dec ades, as the Chinese pop u la tion ages and its export-led model hits its lim its. In Africa by con trast, where the median age is 19 and the pop u la tion will con tinue to grow for dec ades even as fer til ity rates fall, at least 10 eco nom ies, includ ing Guinea, Rwanda, Uganda, Ivory Coast and Tan zania, are expec ted to grow at 6 per cent or above this year. African nations have done a bet ter job man aging the war in Iran and con sequent dis rup tion in pet rol, diesel and fer til iser sup plies than many expec ted.

“Eco nom ies are diver si fied enough to find growth, even in a chal len ging world,” said Charlie Robertson, chief eco nomic adviser to Kenya’s Equity Group, say ing that the likes of Nigeria, Ethiopia and Egypt had shif ted to mar ket-led exchange rates and growthori ented policies. “The tech no crats are in charge and doing a good job.” Many coun tries have broadened their mix of trade and invest ment part ners, as powers in the Gulf and else where take greater interest. Some, such as Mozam bi que — which is devel op ing a huge LNG project — and Guinea, where the $23bn Simandou iron ore project was finally inaug ur ated last year, have seen long delayed mega-projects over the line. And in a con tin ent with too few larges cale private busi nesses, a hand ful of entre pren eurs, includ ing Africa’s richest indus tri al ist Nigeria’s Aliko Dan gote, and Mohammed Dewji of Tan zanian fam ily-owned con glom er ate MeTL group, have taken big bets. Dewji, whose MeTL employs 40,000 people across east Africa and has turnover of $3bn, said African com pan ies — thanks to increas ingly afford able energy and an abund ant urban work force — could now com pete in man u fac tur ing of tex tiles, deter gents and soft drinks, such as his branded Mo Cola. In Tan zania, he claimed, “Mo Cola has a big ger mar ket share than Coca-Cola”. A quiet revival of man u fac tur ing, after years of decline in the face of cheap Chinese imports, might also be under way. “If you squint hard enough, you can see . . . that man u fac tur ing as a share of GDP is trend ing upwards in Africa,” said Ken Opalo, asso ciate pro fessor at Geor getown Uni versity, refer ring to World Bank and OECD data show ing a recov ery to around 12 per cent from a trough of 10 per cent a dec ade ago. Mo Ibrahim, the Sudanese-Brit ish busi ness man who has long cam paigned for bet ter gov ernance in Africa, said that when it came to secur ity and the rule of law, much of the con tin ent had gone back wards. But, he added, the latest index from his eponym ous found a tion, which will be pub lished this month, showed bet ter eco nomic per form ance in roughly 80 per cent of African coun tries since two years ago. “Africa has proved much more resi li ent and has pro gressed when it comes to eco nomic oppor tun it ies, infra struc ture, power, elec tri city, clean water, eco nomic activ ity,” he said. Joe Stud well, a devel op ment eco nom ist at research centre Africa Urban Lab, said African eco nom ies were becom ing more diverse as farm ing became more pro duct ive and urb an isa tion gathered pace.

“A much more nor mal pic ture is emer ging as min er als and hydro car bons take up a smal ler share of the African eco nomy. That reduces volat il ity and increases resi li ence,” he said. Ethiopia, the con tin ent’s second most pop u lous coun try with 138mn people, has pressed on with eco nomic reform. It will expand this year by 9.2 per cent, accord ing to the IMF, des pite a recent resump tion of fight ing in the north ern Tigray province. Oil pro du cer Nigeria, long a lag gard but poten tially an engine of regional growth, is finally on a bet ter tra ject ory fol low ing reforms in 2023. This year, the coun try of 240mn people is expec ted to grow at 4.2 per cent, with some eco nom ists pre dict ing an accel er a tion towards 5 per cent in 2027. “It’s pain ful in the short term but in the long term eco nom ies in Africa turn around,” said David Cowan, chief Africa eco nom ist at Cit ig roup. “They respond to the price incent ives cre ated by the exchange rate adjust ment.” South Africa’s growth stalled in the second quarter, partly as a con sequence of a higher oil import bill. The IMF cut its growth fore cast for the con tin ent’s most soph ist ic ated eco nomy for this year from 1.3 per cent to just 1 per cent. But most eco nom ists think steady fiscal policies plus elec tri city and logist ics reforms will push it in the right dir ec tion. For eign investors have also kept faith. “Cap ital inflows into Africa have remained pretty robust,” said Razia Khan, chief eco nom ist for Africa and the Middle East at Stand ard Chartered Bank, quot ing num bers from her bank that show $14bn in net inflows into sub-Saha ran Africa — exclud ing South Africa — in the year to date. “Forex reserves have con tin ued to grow across a num ber of African mar kets.” The reas ons for steady growth vary. Oil export ers, such as Nigeria and Angola, have benefited from higher prices while some oil import ers, includ ing Tan zania and Zam bia, have been helped by high prices of gold and cop per. Cowan said luck had played a role in Africa’s for tunes. By the time fer til iser ship ments from the Gulf had slowed around April, most crops were safely in the ground, he said. Good rains led to a bumper har vest, espe cially in south ern Africa. But next year, he warned, the luck might turn. “Will El Niño make your weather con di tions worse at a time when fer til iser prices remain high and diesel prices are also high?” he said. “That’s a threat to the happy scen ario.”