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  Readers of this blog will know that I have written at length about the paradox of "markets" - prices are public but their makeup are private. The notion of "private markets" is therefore a contradiction within a contradiction! Data Black Holes Leave Policymakers ‘Flying Blind’ in Hunt for Next Crash The rise of private markets has obscured data which regulators and economists rely on to identify risks in the global economy.  Illustration by Grace J. Kim Saved Translate Predicting the next economic crash or financial crisis has always been more art than science. Today there’s an added complication — the increasing paucity of information about what’s really going on in the economy and financial system. The issue was thrown into sharp focus last year during the US government shutdown, when the Federal Reserve was starved of key data from inflation to retail sales and job numbers used to shape monetary policy. Yet the barriers to accessing data on key risks — some wit...
  This article is an on-site version of the Free Lunch newsletter. Premium subscribers can sign up   here   to get the newsletter delivered every Thursday and Sunday. Standard subscribers can upgrade to Premium   here , or   explore   all FT newsletters Welcome back. In the past few years, the global economy has been battered by a succession of shocks, from wars and rising protectionism to a steep jump in interest rates. Fears of a recession have lingered throughout. But history offers perspective. Excluding the pandemic, there hasn’t been a synchronised global contraction since the 2008 financial crisis. In fact, recent decades stand out for their long, uninterrupted stretches of economic growth. In this edition, I explore why that resilience could be less reassuring than it sounds. “Recessions have got rarer through time,” says Jim Reid, global head of macro research at Deutsche Bank. “The US has only seen four recessions since 1982. But over the previous...