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  How Does This End? Four Scenarios for What Comes Next With Iran. March 10, 2026,  5:00 p.m. ET Credit... Atta Kenare/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images Listen · 5:46 min 151 Opinion Columnist The most famous query in the history of modern warfare came from David Petraeus, then a major general, in an interview with  Rick Atkinson , then a reporter, during the initial assault on Iraq: “Tell me how this ends.” When it comes to the war in Iran, there are, broadly speaking, four possible scenarios. Regime change is the most optimistic one. Some imagine it will take the form of the resumption of the mass demonstrations that the regime bloodily stamped out in January — millions of Iranians marching in dozens of cities, joined by police officers and soldiers and commanders from the conventional army, emboldened by American and Israeli air support, rising to tear down their rulers’ enfeebled apparatus of repression. Nobody should discount this scenario, especially if Iran conti...
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  The enduring logic of US Taiwan policy | Brookings Richard C. Bush  and  Ryan Hass March 4, 2026 A photo illustration shows a pin depicting the Taiwan and U.S. flags, during Taiwan President Lai Ching-te's visit in Honolulu, Hawaii, on November 30, 2024. (Akio Wang/AFP via Getty Images 31 min read Few issues in America’s diplomatic portfolio are more sensitive or consequential than America’s approach to Taiwan and cross-Strait relations. The words and actions that leaders in Beijing, Taipei, and Washington embrace have the power to move markets and carry implications for war and peace. Given the stakes, it is necessary and important for America’s leaders and their advisors to understand the logic underpinning America’s strategy and policy on Taiwan. In the following transcript of an interview between Ryan Hass and Richard Bush on February 17, 2026, the two examine the cumulative decisions that led to the current cross-Strait situation, whether America’s long-standing ap...
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  Iran’s Massacres Will Haunt the Regime | Journal of Democracy Iran’s hardline government responded to nationwide protests with horrific violence, killing thousands of Iranians in a matter of days. There is nothing the regime can offer its people to regain their support. January 2026 E arlier this month, Iranian authorities killed  thousands  of protesters, potentially  tens of thousands  — most of them over the course of just two days, January 8–9. These massacres, aimed at putting down nationwide protests that had begun on December 28, will likely haunt the regime for its foreseeable future. By further delegitimizing the system in the eyes of an already disaffected populace, the deadly repression will make it even more difficult for the regime to win back public support through reforms or concessions. Moreover, it could further fuel the popularity of exiled Prince Reza Pahlavi, who positioned himself as a leader of the opposition during the protests. From Rep...
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  Any attempt at regime change is likely to repeat past mistakes Air power, full-on invasion, arming the opposition: the result is usually the same, writes Philip Gordon illustration: dan williams Your browser does not support the <audio> element. L istening to president donald trump  promise the Iranian people that “the hour of your freedom is at hand”, Americans and others around the world could be forgiven for feeling they were watching a film they had seen before. In calling on Iranians to “take over your government” and evoking a “prosperous and glorious future”, Mr Trump was following in the footsteps of many of his predecessors, who had also succumbed to the temptation of believing that American military power could be deployed to remove a contemptible and threatening Middle Eastern regime and replace it with something better. In almost all cases the reasons for wanting to remove the offending regime are compelling. But past regime-change operations in the region ...
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