Trump’s caged China hawks yearn for return to aggressive stance but risk derailing détente

 Financial Times Europe 24 Sep 2026 DEMETRI SEVASTOPULO — WASHINGTON 

The US pres id ent wel comed Xi Jin ping at Joint Base Andrews just out side Wash ing ton yes ter day, in a break with six dec ades of pro tocol that dis played a huge amount of respect for the Chinese leader. Since return ing to the White House last year, Don ald Trump has repeatedly frus trated offi cials who hoped he would revive his aggress ive stance on China of 2020. In the final year of his first term, as he blamed Beijing for the Covid-19 pan demic, Trump unleashed the hawks, allow ing them to take actions they had wanted for three years. It was an anom aly that has not been repeated. “Trump was never the pure China hawk some people ima gined,” said Julian Gewirtz, a his tor ian at Columbia Uni versity who served as a senior China offi cial in the Biden admin is tra tion. “When he burst on to the scene as a polit ical force, his rhet oric broke the mould, say ing China was rip ping the US off eco nom ic ally. But he has never cared much for human rights in China or tra di tional secur ity issues in the west ern Pacific.” Even the hawks who knew Trump was more focused on trade than secur ity were in for a big sur prise. While Trump put more stock in the need for good rela tions with Xi, China had pre pared for his return. Ini tially, Beijing had reason to be wary. Trump had appoin ted China crit ics to top secur ity roles, includ ing Marco Rubio as sec ret ary of state, Mike Waltz as national secur ity adviser and John Ratcliffe as CIA dir ector. Ivan “Liz ard” Kanapathy, a retired fighter pilot instructor, took the top Asia role at the National Secur ity Coun cil. Defence sec ret ary Pete Heg seth’s views were less clear, but he was not seen as soft on China. Elbridge Colby, a hawk, was put in charge of Pentagon policy. Treas ury sec ret ary Scott Bes sent was con sidered tougher on China than his pre de cessors. US trade rep res ent at ive Jam ieson Greer was sim il arly assert ive on trade and secur ity.

In the first few months, Trump unveiled a blitz of China-related meas ures on trade, eco nomic secur ity and defence. Then came the break: Trump’s global trade war. The pres id ent’s assault on the world’s com mer cial order in April 2025 included steep new tar iffs on China. Beijing hit back hard. Things spir alled: Trump furi ously boos ted levies on China to 145 per cent, trig ger ing more retali ation from Beijing. Global mar kets recoiled, with the tur moil reach ing US Treas ur ies. But China had an even big ger weapon in its arsenal. It slowed the export of the crit ical metals used to make everything from mobile phones to mis siles. Bes sent dis missed China’s move, say ing it was play ing a bad hand with “a pair of twos”. But US com pan ies com plained that the restric tions were leav ing them without crit ical mag nets and other mater i als. The ploy had exposed a US vul ner ab il ity — and it marked a pivotal moment for Wash ing ton’s hawks. “In the first couple of months, it looked like he was resum ing his 2020 tough-onChina approach,” said Liza Tobin, who worked in the first Trump NSC. “For the first time Trump was star ing at an adversary will ing to bring US industry to a stand still. He backed way off and seemed to decide that Wash ing ton would not take on China head to head.” The biggest set back for the hawks was on export con trols, par tic u larly on advanced chips for AI. “Trump says the US must win the AI race against China. Then he sells them the chips and rents them the rest — while keep ing open all the loop holes for Beijing to exploit,” said a former US offi cial. “There is no admin is tra tion strategy or back bone on export con trols. It’s a fire sale to Beijing.” One senior US offi cial pushed back, say ing the Trump admin is tra tion had both kept the Biden-era con trols on advanced chips and taken many more enforce ment actions against viol at ors. The Depart ment of Com merce said its Bur eau of Industry and Secur ity under Trump had over seen an 18-fold rise in fines to $324mn in 2025 from the pre vi ous year and had expan ded its enforce ment unit by 52 per cent this year. The dynamic was exacer bated in autumn 2025, when an Octo ber Trump-Xi sum mit was in the works, and the hawks were thwarted again. In a move that sur prised some White House offi cials, the com merce depart ment unveiled yet more export con trols tar get ing thou sands of Chinese com pan ies. An angry Beijing threatened even more sweep ing rare earths restric tions.

With the threats in the back ground, Trump and Xi met in Octo ber in Busan, South Korea, and agreed a one-year truce in their trade war. The US held off its new export con trols and China delayed its rare earths move. Since Busan, Wash ing ton’s China hawks have had to tread care fully to avoid derail ing the détente. But they are not para lysed — and Trump has given them some licence in secur ity mat ters. “There’s still room for shin-kick ing under the table, but there are lim its to how hard it can occur and where it can occur,” said Ryan Hass, head of the Brook ings Insti tu tion’s China centre. But then there is Taiwan, on which Trump has taken con tra dict ory pos i tions. Jon Czin, former CIA China expert, said Trump was “keen to avoid any action or com ment that would spoil his gen tle man’s agree ment with Xi” and that the China hawks would have to pick their moments. “It is like hav ing a lid on a boil ing pot,” Czin said.