Merz on the ropes as election defeat shows centre is crumbling

 Financial Times Europe 8 Sep 2026 ben.ha l@ft.com Ben Ha l 

Whether or not the far-right Altern at ive for Ger many party has a path to power in the small east ern state of Sax ony-Anhalt, its crush ing vic tory in Sunday’s regional elec tion is a ter rible reflec tion on the coun try’s crum bling polit ical main stream. It spells ser i ous trouble for Chan cel lor Friedrich Merz and his Chris tian Demo cratic Union, whose share of the vote col lapsed. A score of 44 per cent would be the highest out come for a far-right move ment in a regional or national elec tion since the second world war — and this for a party whose regional branch has been cat egor ised as extrem ist by Ger many’s domestic secur ity ser vice. The CDU vote has sunk even fur ther than polls pre dicted, more than halv ing to 17.4 per cent since the last state elec tion in 2021.

 When Merz cam paigned for his party’s lead er ship in 2018, he pre dicted he would halve the AfD’s elect oral sup port. He later retreated from his boast in the face of the AfD’s con tinu ing advance. But how quickly the elect oral tables have turned on his centre-right party. Many Chris tian Demo crat MPs will now be wor ry ing about their jobs. National poll aver ages put the CDU at 21 per cent and the AfD at 28 per cent — a reversal of their scores in last year’s fed eral par lia ment elec tion. Only a third of Ger mans sup port the two parties — the CDU and the centre-left Social Demo crats — who together run the fed eral gov ern ment. The AfD’s hopes of tak ing power in Sax ony-Anhalt appear ini tially to rest on the leftwing nation al ist Bündnis Sahra Wagen knecht (BSW), which is pro jec ted to just clear the elect oral threshold of 5 per cent of votes. Sahra Wagen knecht, its founder, has sug ges ted her party could abstain in an invest it ure vote for the AfD and sup port it issue by issue there after. She has long cri ti cised the “fire wall”, whereby other parties have refused to cooper ate with the AfD, deem ing it a threat to demo cracy. Ulrich Siegmund, AfD leader in the state, also said he would try to lure MPs from other parties. This is not an empty threat. The fire wall will now be tested, pos sibly to destruc tion. An altern at ive regional gov ern ment to the AfD would require the assent, and pos sibly involve ment, of the far left, which the CDU has always opposed. Some CDU mem bers might even switch to the AfD to pre vent it.

Chris tian Demo crat crit ics of the fire wall say it has proved self-defeat ing. In an era of polit ical frag ment a tion and shrink ing sup port for once broad-based main stream parties, it forces the CDU to share power with leftwing oppon ents in often dys func tional, low est com mon denom in ator coali tions. Voters who want more con ser vat ive polit ics turn to theAfD. Rather than staunch ing the flow of sup port to the far right, crit ics say it encour ages it.

 Merz will come under intense pres sure from some parts of his party to drop or at least soften the fire wall. Whether he does or does not, the CDU could splinter. The AfD’s stun ning win leaves Merz him self on the ropes. CDU fig ures were already los ing faith in his lead er ship after a botched reshuffle this sum mer. He has record low poll rat ings, with voters turned off by his haught i ness and fail ure to deliver his bold prom ises. The clam our for a lead er ship change could prove irres ist ible. 

Hendrik Wüst, the 51-year-old CDU premier of North Rhine-West phalia, is the man to watch. He would offer gen er a tional change and broaden his party’s appeal, espe cially among women. But whether he could woo back con ser vat ives while rein vig or at ing a coali tion with the centre left is less clear. Rural Sax ony-Anhalt in former com mun ist East Ger many is not rep res ent at ive of the rest of the coun try. But the strength of sup port for an extrem ist party there is an indict ment of the polit ical centre’s fail ure to come up with com pel ling answers to Ger many’s prob lems. Unless it can raise its game quickly, it is in deep trouble.