Europe Hits the Snooze Button

Sunday’s victory of the anti- immigrant, anti America, pro Russia and pro-China Alternative for G e r m a n y party, or AfD, in the German state of Saxony-Anhalt shook Europe to its core. Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democratic Union party was the hardest hit. The CDU had ruled the state since 2002 and saw its vote share collapse from 37.1% in 2021 to 17.2%. Saxony-Anhalt is the eighth-largest of Germany’s 16 states by land area; measured by economic output per person, it is among the poorest.

State elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern this month are likely to bring more good news for the AfD and further setbacks for the Christian Democrats. Mr. Merz may lose his job as the bad news rolls in, but concerns about an extremist takeover of Germany are premature. Winning pluralities in a handful of former East German states is a significant achievement, but the AfD is still very far from taking over Germany as a whole. France, where Marine Le Pen currently leads the polling for the 2027 presidential election, seems likely to elect a “far right” leader long before Germany does.

Voting trends in Germany and France, however, point to the most important development in European politics today. Threats to Europe’s prosperity and security are growing. But instead of coming together to fight these problems, Europe’s countries seem to be drifting apart. European solidarity is weakening even as Europe comes under more pressure, and more kinds of pressure, than it has in decades.

AfD’s win in Germany shakes a fractured, sleepy continent that should pull together.

Take the Arctic. Threats to European interests there, whether from Russia, China or Donald Trump’s aspirations for Greenland, continue to grow. However, Europeans fumbled perhaps their best chance to change the momentum when Icelanders voted narrowly on Aug. 29 against resuming negotiations on entering the European Union. Shortsightedness in Europe had a lot to do with it. Fishing is big business in Iceland, and European countries were unwilling to promise they wouldn’t use accession talks as leverage for access to Icelandic waters.

Europe is also failing the migration test. Uncontrolled illegal migration is the princi--pal force driving the rise of the far right across Europe. But migration policy is still an uncoordinated mess. Spain has been legalizing illegal aliens; Italy would like to deport them. France and Britain spend at least as much time squabbling over who is responsible for the rampant illegal crossings of the English Channel as doing anything constructive about it.

Defense plans are also going awry. The EU’s independent financial watchdog has reported that despite an almost 80% increase in defense spending between 2020 and 2025, economic rivalries and lack of coordination make it unlikely that European rearmament will achieve its goals.

Europeans aren’t yet thinking strategically. Britain may no longer be a member of the EU, but British support remains essential to any serious European defense initiative. Yet Britain is excluded from core elements of the EU’s € 150 billion lending program aimed at creating a strong European defense industry.

Energy policy is an incoherent muddle. Europeans, who have warned the rest of the world for decades about climate change while neglecting to install air-conditioning in much of the Continent, baked all summer. They may now freeze all winter as gas stocks are at record lows for this time of year. None of this has led to a serious European energy policy. Argentina’s threats to impose sanctions against British efforts to develop resources near the Falkland Islands have drawn a collective yawn from a continent that should be diversifying and securing its sources of supply.

Not even direct threats to European security spark a common response. As Russian drones pop up across the Continent and as cyberattacks flare in one country after another, we see little beyond tsk-tsking from European institutions and capitals. European support for Ukraine is wavering even as Russia ramps up attacks. The alleged Russian sabotage attempt on Germany’s Leipzig/ Halle airport failed to trigger a rush of Euro-patriotism. The airport is located just across the border from the state of Saxony-Anhalt and serves its second-largest city. That didn’t shake regional voters’ support for the most pro-Russian party on the ballot a month after the attempt.

Doctors talk about la belle indifférence, a state of reality- denying serenity that some patients enter while experiencing serious medical symptoms. It’s an apt metaphor for Europe’s mental condition.

The Saxony-Anhalt election is only the latest alarm for a slumbering Europe. Let’s hope the Continent’s leaders don’t hit the snooze button again. The house is on fire and the smoke is spreading.

GLOBAL VIEW

By Walter Russell Mead