Immigration Becomes a Global Powder Keg
As the modern era of mass migration ebbs, nations should act or risk a backlash.
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Thetford, England, population about 25,500, has been mostly quiet since King Henry VIII’s dissolution of the monasteries kneecapped the local economy in 1540. But several nights of violence last week put the Norfolk market town in the news. Crowds angry at plans to house asylum seekers at a nearby Royal Air Force site attacked buildings where migrants were believed to be sheltered. An uneasy peace returned over the weekend, but British authorities worried that the antiforeigner violence could spread.
Thetford is only one place where migrants—and locals’ resistance to mass immigration—are making headlines. Images of migrants streaming across the border from Morocco into the Spanish city of Ceuta electrified viewers globally, created headaches for the government in Madrid, and led Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni to introduce border controls against non-Europeans traveling from Spain.
Something historic appears to be happening. The modern era of mass migration may be coming to a close.
History suggests that opposition to immigration rises as migration becomes more common. The U.S., where immigration had largely been permitted since the Revolution, began to shift to more-restrictive immigration policies in the late 19th century as the share of foreign-born Americans passed 14%. By 1924 the draconian Johnson-Reed Act slammed America’s doors shut, leading ultimately to a more than 90% fall in immigration from the Eastern Hemisphere. Not until the late 1960s would the doors really reopen; the percentage of foreign-born Americans fell to 4.7% in 1970.
Migration has reached extraordinary levels around the world. According to United Nations estimates, between 1990 and 2024 the number of migrants globally nearly doubled, rising from 154 million to 304 million. In 2024 the U.S. had an estimated 52.4 million migrants, the most of any country. In the No. 2 spot was Germany with 16.8 million, followed by Saudi Arabia (13.7 million), the U.K. (11.8 million), France (9.2 million) and Spain (8.9 million).
Conflict over migration isn’t only a story about rich white countries pushing back against poor black and brown ones. More than 178,000 immigrants have left South Africa for other African countries in recent months, many leaving “voluntarily” in the face of mob violence. In 2025 alone, Iran and Pakistan combined have returned more than a million Afghan immigrants and refugees to their country of origin. The Dominican Republic’s policies on Haitian immigrants and refugees are significantly tougher than those of the U.S. Bangladesh is resisting Indian efforts to return alleged illegal migrants forcibly across the roughly 2,500-mile boundary between the two countries.
Those who claim that opposition to elevated levels of immigration stems from racial or religious bigotry miss the point. Black South Africans rioting against migrants from other majority-black sub-Saharan countries aren’t so different from the white anti-immigrant rioters in Thetford. In any case, the message is clear. Resistance to migration means that borders are going to be less open everywhere.
In recent years, American immigration advocates have argued that falling birthrates create a need for more immigrant labor. Those arguments are less convincing in the face of the accelerated automation that artificial intelligence appears ready to unleash. Yet to keep our lead in the technological revolution, America still needs scientific, entrepreneurial and technological immigrant talent. Beyond that, the hard work and ambition of less-skilled but hungry immigrants remain an important driver of economic growth.
For Americans, the question is how to achieve a rational and humane immigration policy that is also politically sustainable. Our current legal framework likely will need to change. Total numbers (including refugees and anyone already illegally present who is legalized) would be capped, and the ceiling would drop when unemployment rates among Americans are high. Some percentage of slots would be reserved for people with special talents and skills. For the rest, we may well give citizens of the Western Hemisphere preference over global immigrants, with families of current citizens receiving an additional boost. Mass refugee resettlements like that of about 100,000 Somalis after 1990, or the currently active program for white South Africans, would end.
This wouldn’t be the first time that an era of mass global migration has ended. The U.S. was only one of many countries to shut the doors on immigrants and refugees in the early 20th century. In 1900 migration was largely unregulated around the world. By World War II almost no country was welcoming immigrants. Reasonable action to restrict and control migration today will, one hopes, avoid the excessive crackdowns, to say nothing of mob violence, that the world has seen. But time is short. Countries that fail to act thoughtfully now will likely face a backlash in the near future.
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Appeared in the August 11, 2026, print edition as 'Immigration Becomes a Global Powder Keg'.
Walter Russell Mead is the Ravenel B. Curry III Distinguished Fellow in Strategy and Statesmanship at Hudson Institute, the Global View Columnist at The Wall Street Journal and the Alexander Hamilton Professor of Strategy and Statecraft with the Hamilton School for Classical and Civic Education at the University of Florida.
He is also a member of Aspen Institute Italy and board member of Aspenia. Before joining Hudson, Mr. Mead was a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations as the Henry A. Kissinger Senior Fellow for U.S. Foreign Policy. He has authored numerous books, including the widely-recognized Special Providence: American Foreign Policy and How It Changed the World (Alfred A. Knopf, 2004). Mr. Mead’s most recent book is titled The Arc of A Covenant: The United States, Israel, and the Fate of the Jewish People.
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