THERE IS NO GRAND PLAN ON IRAN

In the late 1950s, Egyp tian Pres id ent Gamal Abdel Nas ser quipped to CIA oper at iveMiles Cope land that “the genius of you Amer ic ans is that you never make clear-cutstu pid moves, only com plic ated stu pid moves”.

The words were spoken at a time when Amer ica was still seen as some what morebene vol ent than former European colo nial powers. This polit ical cap ital wouldsoon be squandered as the US, fear ing the spread of com mun ism, sought to con tainlocal nation al ism in the Middle East but ended up push ing some coun tries closer tothe Soviet Union. Amer ica's stu pid moves, Nas ser said, made people “won der at thepos sib il ity that we might be miss ing something”.

When the US and Israel killed Iran's supreme leader Ali Khame nei on Feb ru ary 28,many in the region pondered the pos sib il ity of a new grand plan. Gulf coun tries hadwarned Wash ing ton against the war, cau tion ing it would endanger them and ineffect close the Strait of Hor muz, with severe con sequences for both the US and theglobal eco nomy. As far back as the 1990s, Saudi Ara bia had warned the US againstlaunch ing a war against Iran, unless it could guar an tee bring ing down the Islamicrepub lic's regime.

But when oper a tion Epic Fury began, one senior Arab offi cial told me there was cer -tainly work hap pen ing to pre cip it ate regime change behind the fire work of mis silestrikes, although he could not estim ate how well organ ised or resourced it was.Instead, Amer ica's allies in the Gulf were left exposed to Iran's fury and the US'sineptitude. Some Ira ni ans, both inside the coun try and in the dia spora, wanted tobelieve that US Pres id ent Don ald Trump was deliv er ing on his Janu ary prom ise thathelp was on the way, only to real ise quickly that they had been betrayed.

Sup port ers of the war will argue that the mil it ary cam paign itself was wellexecuted and that the US and Israeli forces delivered max imum degrad a tion of Ira -nian capa city short of a ground inva sion, pre par ing the way for robust dip lomacy.But last month the US signed a memor andum of under stand ing with extremelyfavour able terms for Iran. Gulf coun tries, hav ing been dragged into a war theydidn't want, were left to con tain the fal lout of a bad interim deal that ignored theirsecur ity con cerns, includ ing bal listic mis siles and proxy mili tias.

Since then, the Gulf has been hedging intensely to make up for the lack of stra tegicplan ning. In the case of Saudi Ara bia, this means pre serving their rela tion ship withTrump while con strain ing some of Wash ing ton's free dom of mil it ary action. Boththe Emiratis and Saudis are attempt ing a détente with Iran while the UAE is alsodeep en ing secur ity co-oper a tion with Israel.Mean while, US vice-pres id ent JD Vance and sec ret ary of state Marco Rubio appearto have star ted their rival pres id en tial cam paigns, each selling a dif fer ent vis ion ofthe region and the way for ward. Vance described his talks with senior Ira nian offi -cials, includ ing Islamic Revolu tion ary Guard Corps officers, as the “coolest thing”,while Rubio trav elled to the Gulf last month to reas sure allies that Amer ica was notcapit u lat ing to Iran or selling them out.

Less than a month after the MoU was signed, a vic tori ous-feel ing Iran seems to beover-reach ing, partly because it is look ing at Amer ica's con fused moves and won -der ing what it may be miss ing. A hard line Ira nian legis lator even claimed thatAmer ica was pur pose fully man oeuv ring par al lel tracks to deprive Iran of any lever -age.

On Wed nes day, Trump was call ing Ira nian lead ers “sick people” after Iran struckships trans it ing through the Strait of Hor muz. The US Treas ury revoked sanc tionwaivers that allowed Iran to sell oil for 60 days and the US mil it ary con duc ted 90strikes against Iran, which included hit ting a bridge and rail track in the north ofthe coun try, an over land route used for trade with China and Rus sia.

Trump has now declared the cease fire to be over and Gulf coun tries are againincensed at Iran. There may well be more talks but there will also be more strikes.That suits Israel's Prime Min is ter Ben jamin Net an yahu, the only player here withclear-cut moves, for whom war is an imper at ive for polit ical sur vival and who isstill hop ing that the endur ance of the Ira nian regime is not inex haust ible.

Few in Wash ing ton, Tehran or the Arab world want a return to full-blown war. Butthe region seems set for a long hot sum mer of cal ib rated escal a tion, a slip pery slopeto con flag ra tion, until Israeli elec tions in Octo ber and the Amer ican midterms in November.