Erdoğan’s assault on democracy is a threat to Turkey’s allies

Financial Times UK1 Jul 2026The writer is the leader of Tur key’s Repub lican People’s Party (CHP) Özgür Özel

As world lead ers gather in Ank ara for the Nato sum mit next week, Pres id ent RecepTayyip Erdoğan will use the occa sion to project strength. But that image masks adeeper vul ner ab il ity: his grow ing repres sion of Turk ish demo cracy. His gov ern menthas detained peace ful pro test ers — along with law yers, journ al ists and aca dem ics— while try ing to hide the coun try’s real it ies from the world. That is bad for Tur key.It also poses a danger to our Nato part ners, espe cially in Europe.

Tur key’s stra tegic import ance is selfevid ent. It con trols access to the Black Sea; bor -ders Syria, Iraq and Iran; and sits close to con flicts that repeatedly test Europeansecur ity. Our armed forces are among Nato’s largest, while our defence industry isincreas ingly essen tial to Europe’s secur ity. Yet this stra tegic strength masks a darkerreal ity. Tur key’s eco nomy is under severe strain: infla tion remains above 30 percent even by ques tion able offi cialfig ures, con sumer con fid ence is weak, and mil -lions feel poorer, less secure and less hope ful than a dec ade ago. Tur key also hasEurope’s largest prison pop u la tion — a sign of a state increas ingly reli ant on coer -cion rather than con sent.

This domestic weak ness has had polit ical con sequences. Erdoğan is no longer aspop u lar as he once was. In the 2024 muni cipal elec tions, his party suffered its worstdefeat since com ing to power. The Repub lican People’s Party (CHP) — which I haveled since 2023 — has become the coun try’s lead ing local polit ical force. We won bycam paign ing around the struggles of ordin ary people: pen sion ers unable to payrent, gradu ates who saw no future, par ents who could not afford decent food fortheir kids. We spoke both to our voters and former Erdoğan sup port ers who feltaban doned. His response revealed the weak ness at the heart of his sys tem: facedwith a real altern at ive, he has used the power of the state and the courts to elim in -ate demo cratic com pet i tion.

The first major tar get was Ekrem İmamoğlu, Istan bul’s mayor and the CHP’s pres id -en tial can did ate. In March 2025, he was imprisoned on charges of cor rup tion, aid -ing ter ror ism and espi on age that are widely seen as polit ic ally motiv ated. Abroader sweep against the CHP fol lowed. More than 30 oppos i tion may ors havesince been detained or imprisoned. And last month, a court annulled the party elec -tion in which I was chosen as the CHP leader. By judi cial order, I was removed fromoffice and a former party chair who had repeatedly lost elec tions against Erdoğanwas restored.