Joseph Belbruno Blog

Here is why economists only have one hand ("on one hand..."): they're not versed in social science! No dictatorship will ever "shift to consumers" because doing so would destroy their power base by emancipating their subjects! Authoritarianism requires autarky! Goldman (GS) Says Trump Tariffs Could Shift China’s Focus to Consumer - Bloomberg Goldman Says Trump Tariffs Could Shift China’s Focus to Consumer By  Bloomberg News 1 November 2024 at 1:56 pm GMT+8 Save Translate 2:22 Higher US tariffs on Chinese goods could dent growth but also force a long-awaited shift to the consumer in the world’s second-largest economy, according to economists at  Goldman Sachs Group Inc. In the event of higher levies, Beijing would be forced to step up fiscal support to further bolster domestic demand, analysts led by Xinquan Chen said in a research note Friday. They said that the wave of government stimulus this year — which includes a household appliances trade-in program and re...

Trump and the Art of Deterrence Listen (6 min) North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and President Donald Trump on Sentosa Island in Singapore, June 12, 2018.  Photo:  Evan Vucci/Associated Press On the campaign trail,  Donald Trump  proudly contrasts the peace that prevailed during his first term with the wars in Europe and the Middle East that erupted during the current administration. Some observers dismiss the former president’s claims and maintain that  Joe Biden  and  Kamala Harris  were simply unfortunate to have had conflicts break out on their watch. A closer look shows that Mr. Trump is correct. He instinctively understands the art of deterrence, whereas Mr. Biden and Ms. Harris have consistently, if perhaps unintentionally, undermined this traditional pillar of U.S. strategy. The Defense Department could be called the Deterrence Department, for the apex of its strategy isn’t to fight wars but to deter them. Successful deterrence requires Wash...

  U.S. Drugmakers Are Breaking Up With Their Chinese Rats Supply-Chain Partners Listen (7 min) Nearly 80% of U.S. biotechnology companies contract with at least one Chinese firm, according to an industry survey.   Photo:  Zuma Press U.S. drugmakers and biotechs have come to rely on Chinese partners for manufacturing, research and ingredients. Now, some of them are looking for alternatives as geopolitical tensions rise. From big pharmaceutical companies such as  AstraZeneca  to small biotechnology firms like  Amicus Therapeutics  of New Jersey, which is looking for a non-Chinese company to supply raw materials for its rare-disease treatment, the companies say it is time to reduce China risk.  Industry officials say one consequence could be slower drug rollouts and higher costs in the U.S. because the shift takes time and money. Mostly unbeknown to American patients, U.S. and European companies often depend on China for basic chemistry services and...

  La partita cruciale dell’Est di Maurizio Ferrera 31 ott 2024 | 21:08 Ascolta l'articolo 5 min i L'Europa e la sfida per la  democrazia. Le componenti liberali sono le più vulnerabili. Da difendere la protezione costituzionale dello Stato di diritto, le minoranze, i contrappesi all’esecutivo Nei Paesi collocati fra Russia e Unione europea si sta oggi giocando una partita cruciale per il destino della democrazia.  A Est, incombe il tallone autoritario di Putin, che già calpesta il territorio ucraino e una parte della Moldavia. Da Ovest arriva la forza di attrazione di Bruxelles, ma si agitano anche i tentacoli illiberali di Orbán, che stanno avvolgendo i Balcani occidentali (Serbia, Bosnia).  Dopo le elezioni presumibilmente truccate di domenica scorsa, il leader ungherese è volato a Tbilisi per congratularsi con Sogno Georgiano, il partito filo-russo che ha «conquistato» la maggioranza parlamentare. Fra gli effetti esterni dell’invasione in Ucraina vi è stato anche ...

  Moldavia e Georgia: l’Europa pecca di ottimismo? di Wolfgang Munchau 31 ott 2024 | 11:33 Ascolta l'articolo 7 min i Per l’Ue, il risultato del referendum rappresenta la più grave battuta d’arresto dai tempi della Brexit, anche se i governi dei paesi del sud-est europeo sono già in fila per entrare nell’Ue Se pensate che la Brexit sia passata per un soffio, con una vittoria sul filo del rasoio, che dire della Moldavia?  Domenica scorsa, il paese incuneato tra Romania e Ucraina ha indetto il referendum sull’adesione all’Unione europea e la campagna per il sì l’ha spuntata con il 50,5 percento dei voti, contro il 49,5 percento dei no. Il risultato, tuttavia, non è decisivo. I moldavi non hanno effettivamente votato per entrare nell’Ue, bensì per introdurre modifiche in tal senso nella loro costituzione. Non si tratta dunque del referendum vero e proprio, che è ancora da venire. O forse no. Per l’Unione europea e per Maia Sandu, la presidente moldava favorevole all’adesione, que...

RATLAND China resists mounting pressure to do more on climate change A man catching fish with a net in the Huangpu river across the Wujing Coal-Electricity Power Station in Shanghai in 2017. China is defying pressure to outline how it will slash greenhouse gases. (Johannes Eisele/AFP via Getty Images) The United States, other Western countries and some low-lying island nations have been pressing China to take on more responsibility in advancing global climate goals ahead of the conference, according to some veteran climate negotiators and leading Chinese experts. They say they want Beijing to spell out soon how it will slash its planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions over the next decade. They also say they   want China to contribute more cash to help poor countries address the catastrophic impacts of climate change, including  rising seas  and stronger storms. But China, despite being the world’s leading producer and installer of renewable energy, remains resistant to o...

  Opinion | The Three Reasons Harris Will Lose the Election By Kenneth L. Khachigian Oct. 31, 2024 12:46 pm  ET Vice President Kamala Harris in studio at ABC during a break in a recording of ‘The View’ in New York, Oct. 8.   Photo:  charly triballeau/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images There are three reasons why  Kamala Harris  will lose on Tuesday. First, a historic Democratic voting bloc will desert her in margins the polls haven’t anticipated. Hundreds of thousands of traditional Democrats who came of age in postwar America can’t visualize Ms. Harris walking in the footsteps of their legendary party leaders who preceded her—icons like Franklin D. Roosevelt, Harry Truman, John F. Kennedy, Lyndon Johnson and Hubert Humphrey. She suffers from a stature gap that a billion dollars of advertising can’t change, and even if voters don’t mark their ballot for  Donald Trump , it will be to his benefit. Advertisement The vice president had nearly four years to ...

  China Could Regret Not Buying More Trump Insurance Beijing thinks it can handle a return of the former US president without easing tensions with Europe and Japan. That’s a mistake.  1 November 2024 at 03:00 GMT+8 What, Xi worry? Photographer: Sergei Guneyev/AFP/Getty Images Save Translate 4:22 China is bracing itself for a second Trump administration. The former US president, who has a coin-toss chance of recapturing the White House, has vowed to raise tariffs on Chinese goods by  at least 60% . Hobbled by an epic real estate bust, the mainland economy can ill afford a new trade war. In theory, China could cushion the shock of a Trump 2.0 by buying some “insurance” — for instance, by improving ties with the European Union and Japan, which are its second- and fourth-largest trading partners, respectively. (The US is  third .) Better relations could not only protect Chinese access to these markets but increase the odds of Brussels and Tokyo working with Bei...