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It may take a major attack before Britain takes defence seriously
The Defence Investment Plan was supposed to make the Armed Forces ‘war ready’ by 2035 – but has instead raised serious questions about whether the government grasps the growing threat we face from Russia – and the widening gaps in our military capability, says former defence select committee chair Tobias Ellwood
On the first day of America’s campaign against Iran in late February, AI fused vast amounts of intelligence from satellites, drones, signals intercepts and surveillance into more than 1,000 prioritised targets, enabling an extraordinary opening salvo.
This was the “kill web” in action: live data pouring in, analysed and ranked by AI, then passed instantly to manned and unmanned platforms across land, sea and air to deliver coordinated strikes.
This is what modern warfare now looks like. It is also what Britain aspires to build.
Read the Defence Investment Plan (DIP) with the dates removed, and it paints a compelling picture of our future Armed Forces. Put the dates back in, however, and a different reality emerges. Much of this capability will not arrive until 2035. Indeed, the phrase “between 2030 and 2035” appears no fewer than 16 times.
Not until then will our digital kill web be complete; our hybrid navy operational; the Type 26 and Type 31 frigates delivered; and the new Common Combat Vessels entering service. The list continues: upgraded Challenger tanks, Boxer armoured vehicles, a new fast-jet trainer, long-range strike capabilities, additional personnel and long-overdue investment in military bases. Collectively, these are essential upgrades to protect Britain, but many remain up to a decade away.
The Defence Investment Plan was, of course, the government’s response to its own Strategic Defence Review, which did not hold back in describing the growing threats we face and the widening gaps in Britain’s defence posture. The prime minister has warned that Russia could be in a position to challenge Nato by 2030. MI6 chief Blaise Metreweli has said Britain is already “operating in the space between peace and war”.
It is, therefore, hardly surprising that, after waiting almost a year for the DIP, a plan intended to make Britain “war ready” by 2035 instead raises serious questions about whether the Government truly grasps the urgency. The funding falls well short of what the Ministry of Defence says is required, leaving dangerous capability gaps for years to come.
By 2030 Britain plans to spend 2.7 per cent of GDP on defence, while much of Nato is already moving towards 3 per cent and beyond. Remove the cost of the UK’s nuclear deterrent to allow a fairer comparison of conventional military spending, and Britain falls to around 13th in Nato.
Ultimately, this comes down to political choices. Governments are reluctant to make difficult spending decisions, yet the lesson from history is clear: the cost of deterrence is always lower than the cost of conflict. That conflict has already begun, as hostile states increasingly target our economy, infrastructure and national resilience.
What is still not fully appreciated is that economic strength underpins military power, while military security protects economic strength. The two are inseparable. Fail to invest adequately in defence and a successful attack on our economy leaves the Treasury with less money for every public service, not just the Armed Forces.
By any measure, we have entered a more dangerous era. The international order is fragmenting. Authoritarian states are aligning, rearming and growing in confidence, while America is becoming less willing to shoulder the burden of global security.
To assume that nothing serious will happen before 2035 is to gamble with Britain’s future. Sadly, it may take a major attack on the UK before the urgency of that reality finally sinks in.
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