Analysis: Xi Jinping purges his conduit to party elders
Loss of Gen. Zhang Youxia could hollow out China's military
Katsuji Nakazawa is a Tokyo-based senior staff and editorial writer at Nikkei. He spent seven years in China as a correspondent and later as China bureau chief and was the 2014 recipient of the Vaughn-Ueda International Journalist prize.
And then will there really be none?
Chinese military generals, including those close to supreme leader Xi Jinping, have mysteriously vanished from public view one after another in recent years.
In a new twist to China's political saga that has sent shockwaves around the world, Chinese President and Communist Party General Secretary Xi has purged Zhang Youxia, the top uniformed officer of the People's Liberation Army.
Zhang, 75, a member of the Communist Party's powerful Politburo and the senior of the two vice chairmen of the Central Military Commission, has long been seen as one of Xi's most trusted allies within the military.
China's Ministry of Defense announced on Saturday that Zhang and Liu Zhenli, a member of the CMC and chief of staff of the CMC's Joint Staff Department, had been placed under investigation for "suspected serious discipline and law violations."
The decision was made by the Central Committee of the Communist Party, the ministry said in a brief statement, without giving details about what discipline and law violations they committed.
The downfall of Zhang and Liu has left the CMC, the top military organ that supervises the PLA, with only two members -- Chairman Xi and Vice Chairman Zhang Shengmin.
There were seven CMC members immediately after the Communist Party's 20th national congress in October 2022. Former Defense Minister Li Shangfu, former vice CMC chairman He Weidong and Miao Hua already had been purged.
As the nerve center of the PLA, the CMC decides on China's military actions. But the current state of the military body raises serious concerns about how it will work in the future.
Zhang Shengmin is now the only remaining uniformed officer in the CMC. He has spent much of his career in discipline inspection and political work and cannot be said to be an expert on military affairs. It is obvious that the PLA's practical chain of command will not work well for the time being.
Rumors spread quickly around Jan. 20 that Zhang Youxia might be facing an investigation. The Chinese defense ministry's brief statement a few days later was issued hastily to avoid plunging the Communist Party and the PLA into chaos as Zhang is one of the most powerful military figures to be purged in the party's history.
Xi and Zhang Youxia are both "second-generation reds," or children of revolutionary-era party leaders, and old acquaintances. Zhang is three years older than Xi.
Zhang Youxia's father, Zhang Zongxun, was one of China's "founding generals." The younger Zhang has combat experience, including commanding troops during the 1979 Sino-Vietnamese War.
The elder Zhang and Xi Zhongxun, Xi's father and former vice premier, were both born in Shaanxi province and were allies. When they were still young, they were comrades-in-arms belonging to the Northwest Bureau of the Communist Party's Central Committee.
Shortly before taking the helm of the Communist Party in November 2012, Xi abruptly disappeared from the public eye and spent two weeks at a hospital. Xi used this as a cover for behind-the-scenes political maneuvering.
Xi, who still lacked a strong power base, met separately with princelings -- children of senior Communist Party officials -- as well as fellow second-generation reds, including Zhang Youxia. He did so in a bid to secure their support for his plans to launch a fierce anti-corruption campaign.
Among the second-generation reds close to Xi is another general, Liu Yuan. But Liu, the son of Liu Shaoqi, a former Chinese president toppled by Mao Zedong, is already retired.
Then why did Xi single out Zhang Youxia as his key ally in his efforts to cement his grip on the military? The reason is also closely related to the general's shocking downfall this time. It is because of his wide network of personal connections with retired party elders.
While serving as the top uniformed officer of the PLA, Zhang Youxia also acted as an important conduit between Xi and nagging party elders. Zhang, who was able to give Xi constructive criticism, has been widely respected within the military.
That's exactly why Zhang did not retire -- was not able to retire, actually -- at the Communist Party's 20th national congress in October 2022 despite his advanced age of 72.
Although Xi made a final decision to keep him in office, the general enjoyed the strong backing of key party elders, and this is the reason for the unusual personnel decision, according to Communist Party sources.
At the 20th national congress, the Xi Jinping faction achieved a resounding victory over party leadership changes.
For example, Hu Chunhua, a promising next-generation leader, was demoted from being a member of the powerful Politburo to a rank-and-file Central Committee member in a move believed to be part of Xi's drive to put pressure on younger rivals.
Party elders, who were already losing ground to Xi, had no choice but to tolerate such moves. But they pushed for the use of Zhang Youxia as a conduit and political balancer between the two sides to prevent Xi from completely having his own way.
The 2022 decision to keep Zhang Youxia in office as a Politburo member and CMC vice chairman can be seen as the result of a compromise between Xi and party elders.
Signs of a rift in the relationship between Xi and Zhang began to appear in the summer and autumn of 2023, when former Defense Minister Li Shangfu disappeared from public view and was then removed from office.
Li Shangfu's sudden dismissal came only several months after he was tapped as defense minister on Zhang Youxia's recommendation. Li's purge also came immediately after the top two officials of the PLA Rocket Force, including its commander Li Yuchao, were suddenly replaced in unusual personnel changes.
Around that time, some speculated that Xi would close in on Zhang Youxia sooner or later as part of his crackdown on the military.
The Rocket Force was established in 2015 as the successor of the Second Artillery Corps. It oversees China's nuclear and missile arsenal.
This scandal surrounding the Rocket Force is also related to an article published in the Wall Street Journal on Sunday, in which the U.S. newspaper reported that Zhang Youxia was accused of leaking information about China's nuclear-weapons program to the U.S., citing people familiar with a high-level briefing on the allegations against him.
But signs already appeared in 2024 that Zhang might have turned the tables on Xi.
Starting in November that year, key members of the Fujian clique -- Xi's closest aides in the military -- were purged one after another for various reasons, such as corruption. Even some political forces that are not close to Xi blew the whistle on the misconduct of these clique members.
At nearly the same time, a 16-letter political slogan that seems to be unfavorable for Xi began to spread within the military.
"Ji ti ling dao (collective leadership), min zhu ji zhong (democratic centralism), ge bie yun niang (individual consultations), hui yi jue ding (decision by meetings)."
The slogan means that democratic centralism must be implemented thoroughly under the collective leadership system, important issues must be discussed individually and properly, and decisions must be made at meetings.
The PLA Daily, the mouthpiece of the CMC, also published commentaries in line with the four basic principles. These principles are enshrined in the Communist Party's constitution, but had not been mentioned much since the Xi era began in 2012.
But even with this phase making the rounds, Xi seems to have been biding his time in an effort to catch Zhang Youxia off guard. While Xi was quietly accepting the massive purge of his close aides within the military, he was also considering his next move.
In a related development, the behind-the-scenes investigation into the scandal centered on the Rocket Force continued into its third year.
And then Xi suddenly placed Zhang Youxia under investigation.
The PLA Daily said in its editorial that Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli "have gravely betrayed the trust placed in them" by the Communist Party's Central Committee and the CMC.
They have also "seriously trampled on and undermined the system of ultimate responsibility resting with the CMC chairman," it added.
The CMC's "chairman responsibility system" is designed to concentrate into Xi's hands the final authority to decide on military actions. Even if the importance of collective leadership is emphasized within the military, in theory, it is not supposed to directly contradict the "chairman responsibility system."
But Xi and his inner circle were increasingly alarmed by what they saw as disturbing moves made by the powerful Gen. Zhang Youxia with the backing of party elders.
When Xi disappeared from public view in the autumn of 2012, Zhang visited him in the hospital and pledged to cooperate with his fight against corruption.
But as a conduit and political balancer between Xi and party elders, Zhang eventually found himself in a catch-22 situation. He probably never imagined that he would face a similar fate to that of former CMC vice chairman Lin Biao.
Lin Biao, a military general and politician who was said to be Mao's successor, was killed in 1971 when his aircraft crashed in Mongolia while he was trying to defect to the Soviet Union after being suddenly labeled by Mao as a rebellious element.
No one knows what will happen next in the fierce power struggle within the Chinese Communist Party. Now that the important conduit between Xi and party elders has been lost, the situation within the party and the military is far from stable.
Xi's political battle leading to the Communist Party's 21st national congress in 2027, where he is expected to seek re-election for a fourth term as party chief, has already begun.
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