Ukraine’s New Concessions for Peace

Volodymyr Zelensky will travel to Mar-a-Lago Sunday to discuss the latest peace offer, and Ukraine’s President will come bearing more concessions. This shows again that Ukraine isn’t the obstacle to ending Vladimir Putin’s war.

The news is that, under a new U.S.-Ukraine framework accord, Kyiv may be willing to cede some land it holds in the east as part of a demilitarized front line. Ukraine had opposed giving up territory in Donetsk, where a fortified 31-mile defensive line has slowed Russian advances. But Mr. Zelensky is now saying Russia and Ukraine could both withdraw from some current positions as part of a demilitarized zone, provided it is approved by Ukrainian voters.

This is a major concession, especially given Russia’s repeated violations of the 2014 and 2015 Minsk cease-fire agreements. Mr. Putin used those fighting pauses to build up his military in Crimea and occupied Donetsk and Luhansk to prepare for his 2022 invasion.

Mr. Zelensky told the press before Christmas that, in return for Ukraine’s land concession, the West would offer Ukraine security guarantees akin to Article 5 in the NATO treaty. That’s the plank that says an attack on one is an attack on all and obliges a united response.

Details on these guarantees are said to be included in documents negotiated secretly between Ukraine and its allies. The details had better be explicit and firm, and in the case of the U.S. approved by a vote of Congress. Otherwise they won’t be worth much when Mr. Putin inevitably tests them.

These guarantees would be “considered void” if

Ukraine “invades Russia or opens fire at Russian territory without provocation,” the Kyiv Independent reports. The Kremlin is notorious for its false-flag operations that blame Ukraine, and you can bet Russia will try to blow up a cease-fire with similar operations.

The framework also envisions international forces, presumably from a European coalition of the willing, at the front line to monitor and reinforce the peace. The framework doesn’t affirm a path toward NATO membership for Ukraine, but nothing released so far rules it out. It also nods at eventual Ukrainian accession to the European Union.

The framework would cap Ukraine’s military at 800,000—an improvement over the 600,000 in the earlier U.S. proposal. That’s as much as Ukraine’s population could sustain, but note that Russia would have no such limits. More important is that the West could arm Ukraine while Kyiv expands its arms production.

All of this is at least a plausible outline for a cease-fire, but Russia is unlikely to accept it. Russian commentators denounced it ahead of Christmas, and Mr. Putin’s holiday message included a nasty missile and drone barrage on Ukrainian civilians.

Mr. Trump told the New York Post on Frida that there’s a “good shot” of reaching an agreement on Sunday. But that will mean persuading Mr. Putin that Mr. Trump won’t let the Russian win at the negotiating table what he hasn’t been able to win on the battlefield.

Kyiv may cede territory in exchange for U.S. security guarantees.