REVIEW & OUTLOOK

The High Stakes in Venezuela

President Trump is in a high-stakes showdown with Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro and the dictator’s backers in Havana and Moscow. One of the two presidents is going to lose, and it will be Mr. Trump if Mr. Maduro isn’t ousted one way or another.

Mr. Trump has never said explicitly that regime change is his goal in Caracas, but the evidence is clear that it is. He’s predicted Mr. Maduro’s days are numbered, and Mr. Trump is gradually raising political pressure with the message that the dictator should go into exile for his own good, and perhaps survival.

The President has assembled an invasionsized naval force in the Caribbean, including a carrier task force. The political cover for this intimidation campaign is that Mr. Trump is fighting drug cartels, but you don’t send 25% of the Navy’s deployed warships, F-35 fighters, and thousands of Marines merely to blow up drug boats.

Administration sources have whispered to the press that strikes on Venezuelan territory could begin soon. This weekend Mr. Trump announced that commercial air traffic should avoid Venezuelan airspace. The U.S. wants Mr. Maduro to take the hint and vamoose to Cuba, Brazil, or some other refuge.

But what if Mr. Maduro doesn’t leave on his own? The dictator is clearly nervous, alternating between pleas for “peace” and defiant calls for national resistance. He is also mobilizing his military for conflict.

He may not be entirely master of his own fate. Cuba’s intelligence service is solidly behind him and no doubt is urging him to stay. Our sources believe Cuban intelligence is working closely with Mr. Maduro’s military counterintelligence network, the DGCIM. They work together to spy on the country’s officer corps to disrupt a potential coup attempt.

Venezuela matters to Cuba as a force for revolution on the Latin American continent. Leaders in Havana also know that if Mr. Maduro falls to a pro-American government, Mr. Trump may next turn his attention to them. They know Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s history as an enemy of the Castros and the Latin left.

Venezuela is also important to Moscow, which reportedly sent a general to Caracas recently to advise the Maduro forces. The Kremlin loves to bedevil the U.S. in the Western Hemisphere and disrupt pro-American

governments. If a pro-American government could restore Venezuelan oil production, it would hurt the Kremlin’s finances by reducing global oil prices. All of which is to say that the Trump-Maduro showdown has global and regional implications. If Mr. Trump withdraws his Caribbean flotilla with Mr. Maduro still in power, the Venezuelan strongman will have won. The world will see that he was able to stand up to American power in the Yankee’s backyard. Smaller regional nations like Trinidad and Tobago that have sided with the U.S. against Mr. Maduro will become new targets for Cuban disruption.

If Mr. Maduro calls Mr. Trump’s naval bluff, the President may have to take direct military action to oust the dictator. If this includes special forces raids or other boots on the ground, American casualties are possible. This is a much higher domestic political risk than cruise missile strikes or B-2 bomber raids. All the more so when Mr. Trump’s isolationist base is braying that he promised to end wars, not start them. He’ll also get no help from Democrats.

We think deposing Mr. Maduro is in the U.S. national interest given how he has spread refugees and mayhem in the region. No one should think this would be an American “coup.” Venezuelans voted overwhelmingly to elect the opposition in the 2024 presidential race, but Mr. Maduro refused to cede power. Deposing him in favor of the elected president would restore democracy.

But it isn’t clear how the Venezuelan military would respond to U.S. intervention. Let’s hope the CIA is working the case well for a change, and that local forces would break for the democrats. But Mr. Trump would have to be prepared in any case to help the new government defend itself.

If Mr. Maduro flees and the democrats take over, it will be a giant step for freedom in the region. Would the Cuban people rise up against their dictators next? Mr. Trump would have his second foreign-policy victory after bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities.

But if Mr. Maduro refuses to leave, and Mr. Trump shrinks from acting to depose him, Mr. Trump and the credibility of the U.S. will be the losers. Mr. Trump chose this showdown, and it will cost America and the region dearly if Mr. Maduro emerges triumphant.

Trump chose this showdown with Maduro, and only one will win.