Pentagon says China’s nuclear warhead growth slows, commits to stabilizing tensions

Today at 4:09 a.m. Sydney Time

By Cate Cadell

The Pentagon assesses that China’s production of nuclear warheads has slowed after a rapid buildup since 2020, with fewer new weapons added to its arsenal. But China’s program continues to expand, focusing on lower-yield nuclear weapons and early counterstrike capabilities, and remains on track to field 1,000 warheads by the end of the decade.

The China Military Power Report — an annual unclassified Pentagon assessment of Beijing’s capabilities delivered to Congress — departs from the language of recent editions that emphasized the looming challenge of China’s military buildup, instead highlighting President Donald Trump’s efforts to stabilize ties with the world’s fastest-growing military power.

Beijing’s total nuclear warhead arsenal likely remained in the low 600s, the report says, similar to last year’s figures, “reflecting a slower rate of production” — down from the estimated 100 additional warheads a year since 2020. The report notes that the People’s Liberation Army is, however, continuing “its massive nuclear expansion,” and showing “no appetite” for arms control discussions.

The report strikes an overall more conciliatory tone on Beijing’s military ambitions. Where last year’s assessment described Beijing as the “pacing challenge” for the U.S. military — a term also used during Trump’s first administration, this year’s report describes China’s rapidly expanding military as a “logical” result of the country growing more wealthy and powerful.

The Pentagon report notes that Beijing is ramping up efforts to “coerce” Taiwan to unify with China through a campaign of military patrols — including a twofold increase in incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone between 2023 and 2025 — and using increasingly aggressive political rhetoric as part of a campaign to undermine the island’s independent rule.

China’s embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Despite producing fewer nuclear warheads, China’s broader nuclear program has expanded in other ways, including the development of more versatile low-yield weapons and upgrades to its counterstrike systems, the report notes. China has likely loaded more than 100 intercontinental ballistic missiles into desert silos, advancing capabilities for long-range strikes closer to U.S. territories.

At over 600 nuclear warheads, China’s arsenal remains far smaller than U.S. stockpile of about 3,700, but the report says upgrades in China’s program likely have enhanced its ability to rapidly retaliate. “This reliance on the strategic level of deterrence — likely nuclear weapons, but also cyber and space capabilities — indicates the growing confidence and comfort the PLA has with conventional escalation,” it said.

The significance of China’s expanding arsenal has been thrown into sharper relief amid rising global tensions over nuclear weapons. Russia has stepped up nuclear intimidation since its invasion of Ukraine, while Trump has ordered the United States to resume nuclear testing “immediately,” accusing Moscow and Beijing of skirting a three-decade moratorium.