China's quantum leap will eclipse US aircraft carriers, analysts say
Next-generation computers could render traditional weapons obsolete
Aircraft carriers like the USS Carl Vinson were long the symbol of U.S. might, but quantum computing might be more crucial to future warfare. (U.S. Navy)
WASHINGTON -- A parliamentary debate between Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and an opposition politician over possible Taiwan contingencies -- from a maritime blockade in the Bashi Channel to outright occupation -- kicked off a new round of tensions with China. Yet analysts warn that such scenarios may soon be overshadowed by a new weapon: quantum computing.
The day quantum computers will be able to break any and all classical cryptography -- "Q-Day" -- is projected for the 2030s. When it arrives, experts say, quantum power could rival or surpass aircraft carriers and F-35s as the decisive tool of warfare.
Jesse Van Griensven, adjunct professor at the University of Waterloo in Canada and CEO of quantum cybersecurity company EigenQ, used a bank robbery analogy to describe the scale of quantum computing.
"With today's computers, somebody hacks your account and your money is gone. With quantum computers, the money from the whole bank is gone," he told Nikkei Asia. Such machines could disable airports, power plants, telecom networks and military forces, reducing the United States "to the Stone Age" without firing a single bullet, he said.
China is investing heavily. In March, Zheng Shanjie, the head of China's state planner, said a government-backed fund will be set up that will mobilize 1 trillion yuan ($140 billion) to boost "hard technologies," including semiconductors, renewable energy and quantum computing.
"Militaries and intelligence agencies around the world are figuring out that quantum is a real thing and it's a real threat," Van Griensven said.
Ryan Fedasiuk, a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, warned that if China acquires an error-corrected quantum computer before the U.S., Japan or Taiwan transition to quantum-resistant algorithms, the consequences could be devastating.
Beijing would gain "an asymmetric advantage in intelligence, the ability to read sensitive back traffic and compromise systems we thought were secure," he said.
Fedasiuk stressed quantum technologies are still immature, and even a working quantum computer would not be a "magic switch" instantly shutting down grids in New York or hacking the Pentagon. The greater danger lies in China's "harvest now, decrypt later" strategy, he said. For decades, China has stockpiled data from cyber espionage campaigns, holding it until the day advanced quantum capabilities can decrypt it.
Current encryption methods, such as RSA -- or Rivest-Shamir-Adleman, the surnames of the three cryptographers who invented the algorithm in 1977 -- rely on mathematical problems which would take classical supercomputers centuries to solve. A quantum computer could do so in days or weeks.
"China's security services may be able to apply principles of quantum computing to crack encryption on files they have already stolen from the United States," Fedasiuk said.
Troves of sensitive data that were previously intercepted but otherwise believed to be secure could theoretically be exposed, posing risks to U.S. military and intelligence operations.
Morgan Peirce, a cyber and quantum analyst at the Center for a New American Security, said China is preparing for the quantum threat to encryption through large-scale deployment of quantum communications, especially quantum key distribution, which can offer unhackable communications even against a quantum computer.
Beijing sees quantum communications as one of its comparative advantages and has poured vast resources into development, building out the world's largest quantum communications infrastructure. "The Chinese government is funding quantum communications at a much more massive scale than the U.S. or anywhere, anyone else in the world," she said.
Migrating to effective quantum-resistant communications is a military necessity. If, at the time of a potential conflict, the U.S. military or Japan's Self-Defense Forces has not migrated to a quantum-proof system while China is equipped with a quantum computer that is cryptographically relevant, China could hack into aircraft carriers and drones, sending them in the wrong direction.
In 2022, then-U.S. President Joe Biden issued a memorandum ordering every federal agency to migrate to new quantum-resistant algorithms by 2035.
This is because "the U.S. government thinks that a quantum computer capable of breaking today's public key encryption could realistically appear by 2035. Some analysts believe it could appear even sooner than that," Peirce said.
Lindsay Gorman, managing director of the German Marshall Fund Technology Program in Washington, said that while policymakers often talk about next-generation technologies as a race to a winner-take-all finish, such as with artificial intelligence, high-end chips and 6G, "universal fault-tolerant quantum computing may be the one frontier technology for which that description is truly apt."
The winner of that race could have an instant access key to all information that nations try to keep secret -- from drone links and satellite communications systems on the battlefield to how militaries understand an operating picture, she said.
Achieving this devastating impact, however, may be harder in practice than it sounds, she added.
"An adversary would need strategic surprise, keeping this capability secret and deploying it at just the right moment. As soon as we get a hint that someone is close to winning the quantum race, we will see crash programs to migrate to post-quantum encryption systems. We can avoid these doomsday scenarios by executing this transition now."
Comments
Post a Comment