Analysis: Xi's Takaichi retribution has less impact on eastern Japan
Area hit by 2011 quake still receiving Taiwanese and other tourists as Kansai suffers
Katsuji Nakazawa is a Tokyo-based senior staff and editorial writer at Nikkei. He spent seven years in China as a correspondent and later as China bureau chief and was the 2014 recipient of the Vaughn-Ueda International Journalist prize.
Chinese President Xi Jinping's administration has taken a spate of high-profile retaliatory measures against Japan over Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's remark about a possible Taiwan contingency.
But while ratcheting up pressure on Japan and waging a propaganda war against the country at home and abroad, the Xi administration has so far stopped short of taking strong measures that could also backfire on the Chinese economy.
In a remark that infuriated Beijing, Takaichi on Nov. 7 told Japan's parliament that a possible Chinese attack on Taiwan could pose an existential threat to Japan, allowing the country to exercise its right to collective self-defense.
The escalating campaign recently reached into Japan's entertainment industry, with Japan-related music events planned in China being canceled one after another.
On Nov. 28, Ayumi Hamasaki's concert scheduled for the following day in Shanghai was abruptly axed. The diva, known as Ayu to her fans, later uploaded to Instagram a photo showing her performing at an empty venue.
Maki Otsuki, well-known for singing the theme song of the popular anime series One Piece, was forced to halt her performance at an event in Shanghai on Nov. 28, with the lights and music suddenly going off.
The first of the Chinese retaliatory measures came on Nov. 14, when Beijing urged Chinese nationals to refrain from traveling to Japan for the time being, citing security concerns.
The Chinese government has also reportedly asked domestic airlines to reduce flights to Japan. This could affect local economies in Japan, but its impact will be uneven, with the Kansai region in western Japan likely to be hardest hit.
The region, home to Osaka and Kyoto, is said to have deep economic ties with China. The percentage of Chinese foreign nationals visiting tourist destinations is also relatively high in the region.
Kansai International Airport, which has the highest number of China routes among Japan's airports, expects flights to and from Chinese cities to plunge by around 30% in December.
At Haneda Airport in Tokyo, however, only a small number of flights have been cut.
Tokyo forms the center of the Kanto region in eastern Japan, and Haneda is one of the world's busiest airports. The competition among carriers for takeoff and landing slots is fierce.
If airlines reduce their flights to and from Haneda, they could be urged by Japanese transport authorities to give up their slots, which would be very difficult to reacquire.
China has not slashed many flights to Haneda "in order to avoid a direct impact on the management of its state-owned major airlines," said one Chinese source familiar with the matter.
The source, who lives in Japan, pointed out that China cannot easily decide to cut Haneda-bound flights as any such move would affect the long-term profits of its mainly state-owned major airlines.
Kansai International Airport, however, operates under a different set of circumstances and could be experiencing a hangover now that World Expo 2025 Osaka -- which drew 25 million visitors during its six-month run to October -- has drawn to a close.
In Tohoku, meanwhile, the impact of China's move to dissuade its travelers from going to Japan has been limited; many of the northwestern region's foreign arrivals come from Taiwan.
Tohoku has been attracting growing attention from foreign tourists recently, with Sendai, the capital of Miyagi prefecture, serving as a gateway to the region.
A considerable percentage of foreign guests at hotels near Sendai Station, a key transportation hub in the region, are from Taiwan, many of whom stay for two or more nights, a source familiar with the matter said.
"The occupancy rate has risen (thanks to a growing number of guests), resulting in room charges remaining stuck at high levels," the source went on. "I don't feel the impact of recent tense Japan-China relations for now."
There are at least two direct flights between Sendai and Taiwan in both directions every day.
After the region was devastated by the 2011 earthquake, tsunami and triple meltdown, it received a lot of support from Taiwan, and cities across Tohoku established friendship-city or sister-city relationships with Taiwanese communities.
Against this backdrop, the number of direct flights between Sendai Airport and Taiwan has increased. Sendai is currently served by direct flights from Taipei and Kaohsiung, the island's second-largest city.
The Tohoku region consists of six prefectures: Aomori, Iwate, Akita, Yamagata, Miyagi and Fukushima.
Sendai and the surrounding area is receiving a growing number of tourists from Southeast Asia, the U.S. and Europe.
Foreign travelers visiting Sendai typically make their way to famous hot spring resorts in Tohoku, like Ginzan Onsen in Yamagata prefecture, then return to the city before departing Japan. Ginzan is well-known for its traditional wooden architecture.
Foreign tourists also make their way to Matsushima Bay in Miyagi prefecture, famous for the numerous small islands that dot the scenery. Some could even be found taking in the view late last month despite the cold weather.
While launching a scathing verbal attack on Takaichi over her Taiwan remark, the Xi administration is continuing to send a signal behind the scenes to Japanese companies operating in China that it will cherish them.
The Xi administration has also so far stopped short of canceling its visa-free arrangement for short-term Japanese visitors. Under the arrangement, Japanese are allowed to stay in China without a visa for up to 30 days.
Many businesspeople take advantage of the visa-free arrangement. Canceling the arrangement would lead to stagnant business exchanges and delayed Japanese investments in China. It would also inevitably affect international supply chains.
But the verbal attacks on Takaichi keep coming, with Wu Jianghao, the Chinese ambassador to Japan, joining the fray.
The People's Daily, the mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party, on Nov. 30 published an article written by Wu that severely criticizes the prime minister and demands the immediate retraction of her Taiwan remark. But while talking tough in print, Wu recently met with Japanese business and political figures in Tokyo. This new tack reflects China's dire economic situation.
China's top envoy in Japan met with Yoshinobu Tsutsui, chairman of the Japan Business Federation, the country's most powerful business lobby commonly known as Keidanren.
During their meeting on Nov. 28, Wu and Tsutsui agreed on the importance of economic and business exchanges. The meeting was held at the Chinese side's request, informed sources said.
Wu followed that up by meeting senior members of a cross-party group of Japanese lawmakers promoting Japan-China friendship.
All official Chinese media outlets have been mobilized to continue the barrage of personal attacks against Takaichi. But despite the all-out campaign, people in China remain calm, with no anti-Japan demonstrations or boycotts of Japanese products being reported.
In September of 2012, a storm of demonstrations swept through China to protest Japan's nationalization of the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea, which China claims and calls the Diaoyu Islands.
Xi took over from Hu Jintao as party general secretary two months later and then as Chinese president in March 2013.
Since the Xi era began, a once-unthinkably large number of Chinese have taken vacations in Japan, getting first-hand looks at the country's current situation.
Thus, the Chinese government's warnings that Japan is dangerous or that the country is reviving its militarist past ring hollow.
Another factor is at play here: Many Chinese are currently preoccupied with their daily lives, struggling through the country's prolonged economic slump and harsh employment situation, one that is especially hard on young people.
While some Chinese social media users vent their pent-up frustration through "Japan bashing," their posts have not led to anti-Japan demonstrations or a boycott of Japanese products, illustrating how Chinese nationalism has reshaped itself.
With the Chinese economy in dire straits, the Xi administration has forced itself to perform a delicate balancing act over the simmering diplomatic row it has stirred up regarding Takaichi's Taiwan remark.
Japan needs to respond calmly to the mixed signals being sent from China. If it overreacts to China's provocations, it will only make an eventual thaw in bilateral ties more elusive.
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