THE MANCHURIAN CANDIDATE Issues an Ultimatum to Ukraine

His proposal to end Russia's war is actually an ultimatum to Ukraine. Trump suggests he might end American support if Ukraine won't agree, but what might be the costs to the U.S. of a bad deal?

The 28-point plan that was mooted in the press but became public on Thursday includes a reduction in Ukraine’s military and a cap on its manpower at 600,000, from about 900,000 now. It isn’t clear if foreign peace-keeping troops would be allowed on Ukraine’s soil or if it could maintain long-range weapons.

The deal hands Mr. Putin all of the Donbas in the east. He’d pocket the territory he’s already seized there—and get the rest that Ukraine still holds despite nearly four years of Russian assaults.

Ukraine would forfeit its right to join a defensive Western alliance in NATO. Oh—and the U.S. and Ukraine would recognize Russian control of Crimea, which Mr. Putin took by force in 2014. Mr. Putin has made these demands since 2022 after his failed storming of Kyiv.

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This managed capitulation would be a bitter pill in Ukraine. “Now is one of the most difficult moments in our history,” Volodymyr Zelensky said on Friday. Ukraine must choose between “dignity, or the risk of losing a key partner.”

That bracing remark underscores that Mr. Trump is essentially saying Ukraine must agree to his terms or he will stop U.S. weapons and intelligence support. Mr. Zelensky is in a weakened domestic position amid the embarrassment of a fresh corruption scandal in Kyiv. But after Mr. Putin’s brutalities, it will be hard for any Ukrainian patriot to sell this settlement to the Ukrainian public.

Trump officials will say that Mr. Trump is for the first time offering an explicit U.S. security guarantee, albeit details unknown. The decision for Ukraine is whether to believe this guarantee. A parchment promise does not mean Mr. Putin has abandoned his designs to control Ukraine. For him it is an ideological and historical mission that is part of his legacy. “If Vladimir Putin lives up to a cease-fire or peace treaty with Ukraine,” as Sen. Roger Wicker put it this year, “it will be the first time ever.”

Then there are the questions for the United States. Mr. Putin’s method is to push against red lines and probe the will of his opponents. Mr. Trump will have handed Mr. Putin favorable terrain in the east that helps the Russian make a direct run for Kyiv when he’s rearmed and ready.

Mr. Trump’s offer would defang a fighting ally in Ukraine—the kind the Administration says it wants—and expose the U.S. to a greater risk of a direct confrontation with Russia. Where are the supposed realists and restrainers who run this Administration? We are supposed to believe that the same President who won’t sanction China for buying Russian oil and assisting its war machine will go to war for Kyiv?

And assume for a moment that Mr. Trump is prepared to back up his promise to Ukraine with the lives of the men and women of the U.S. military. What about a President JD Vance or President Gavin Newsom?

Also extraordinary is the offer to rescue and rehabilitate Mr. Putin financially. “Russia will be reintegrated into the global economy,” the document says, and return to make the G7 again the G8 group of nations. Russia would be the only dictatorship in that group.

The U.S. will enter some “long-term economic cooperation agreement” with Russia, an outgrowth of the Trump delusion that Mr. Putin can be wooed with commerce. The plan floats working with Russia on—we are not making this up—artificial intelligence. Mr. Trump might as well skip the middle man and surrender the U.S. tech advantage to China directly.

Mr. Trump insists the war in Ukraine is Europe’s problem, but then why not first consult those who live in Mr. Putin’s backyard? The deal looks like an echo of Trump’s first term freeze out of the Afghan government while Zalmay Khalilzad negotiated with the Taliban in Doha. That set the stage for President Biden’s abandonment of Afghanistan.

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Mr. Trump may figure he can finally wash his hands of Ukraine if Europe and Ukraine reject his offer. He’s clearly sick of dealing with the war. But appeasing Mr. Putin would haunt the rest of his Presidency. If Mr. Trump thinks American voters hate war, wait until he learns how much they hate dishonor.

Mr. Trump can tarnish his legacy if he wants, but the bigger risk here is to the United States. A bad deal in Ukraine would broadcast to U.S. enemies that they can seize what they want with force or nuclear blackmail or by pressing on until America loses interest. The odds of a Pacific crisis will go up.

European capitals and the last adults in Congress will now scramble to try to talk Mr. Trump off this plan—and don’t rule out Mr. Putin still overplaying his Trump hand. These are the forces that can save the U.S. President from appeasement he’ll regret.

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Appeared in the November 22, 2025, print edition.