Is the U.S. Losing in Vietnam? Russia, North Korea and China Are Gaining.
American officials believed nearly two years ago that Vietnam was about to buy C-130 military transport planes from the United States. In interviews, they said the sale would be a powerful blow to Russia, Hanoi’s main military partner, and a clear sign that geopolitical swing states like Vietnam were tilting toward Washington, not Moscow or Beijing.
At Vietnam’s defense expo last December, the country’s prime minister even climbed aboard a visiting C-130, inspecting the cockpit as U.S. commanders watched. A YouTube video seemed to capture a Vietnamese deputy defense minister telling colleagues that three (or maybe 13) planes had been ordered. But then nothing happened.
Instead, Vietnam has stepped up purchases of Russian military equipment, routing around U.S. sanctions meant to cut off business with Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. Leaked documents and interviews with Vietnamese and Western officials all point to a reinvigorated relationship — a return to distrusting America and relying on Russia, with a surge of high-level meetings and previously undisclosed purchases and partnerships.
The evidence reviewed by The New York Times includes records of Vietnam ordering dozens of complex air-defense systems, and high-tech upgrades for submarines, while seeking fleets of new aircraft. Russia and Vietnam have also continued to expand military-technical cooperation through joint ventures. At least one company in Hanoi, Vietnam’s capital, was added to U.S. and European sanctions and export-control lists in 2024 and 2025, suggesting the business was contributing to Russia’s fight against Ukraine.
Most of the transactions and collaborations with Russia have avoided sanctions enforcement, partly with payment systems hidden in other companies, and because the United States let a lot go, believing it was Vietnam’s partner of choice. But Moscow is getting bolder. While many of the secret purchases began during the Biden administration, they appear to be accelerating with President Trump in power — as are public displays of close relations.
Russia’s state news agency announced last month that a newly ratified protocol with Vietnam would let debts for military equipment be paid in Russian rubles.
“The law was signed by Russian President Vladimir Putin,” a Russian statement said.
Vietnamese officials say that their country is simply being pragmatic. Russia has been supplying most of their weapons for decades; Vietnam’s diversification process takes time. But after a pause prompted by Russia invading Ukraine in 2022 — and a drive toward other partners, which the Biden administration had encouraged — Vietnam is back in business with Moscow in ways that could reshape security calculations across Asia.
Much of the region now worries that President Trump, who will be in South Korea this week for the APEC summit meetings, is pushing Hanoi further away, making Asia more dangerous by alienating not just allies but also newer partners.
Exasperation with the United States has been building in Vietnam. Blow by blow, it has risen with the elimination of American aid for clean energy and H.I.V. prevention, up-and-down tariffs, indifference to requests for a leader-to-leader meeting, a Trump family golf development near Hanoi that has enraged local residents, and surprises like the new tax on U.S. imports of furniture — one of Vietnam’s priority industries for growth.
It has been 50 years since the war with America ended, but Vietnam is still dominated by factions that either distrust or welcome the West. What Mr. Trump is now doing, according to analysts and officials, is empowering America skeptics and angering America fans.
Near the end of the Biden administration, Vietnam worried about being seen as too close to the United States. Now, in private meetings, Vietnam’s leaders have expressed shock at what they described as a confusing and unfair reversal under the Trump administration that disregards Vietnam’s embrace of a comprehensive strategic partnership.
“The unpredictability of Trump’s policies has made Vietnam very skeptical about dealing with the United States,” said Nguyen The Phuong, a security analyst at the University of New South Wales in Australia. “It’s not only trade but the difficulty of reading his mind and actions.”
New Alignments
Vietnam insists that relations with the United States remain strong. Anna Kelly, a White House spokeswoman, said the American people were benefiting.
“Under President Trump’s leadership, the United States has a great relationship with Vietnam,” she said in response to emailed questions, “which is how the President was able to open Vietnamese markets to American goods.”
But in Japan, South Korea and Australia — and in the American institutions that deal with long-term foreign policy — concern about losing Vietnam keeps growing.
Russia is not the only worry. Vietnam’s leader, To Lam, recently visited North Korea and agreed to cooperate on defense. A few days after Mr. Trump’s “liberation day” tariffs slapped a 46 percent tariff on Vietnamese exports (which was later reduced), China’s leader, Xi Jinping, received a red-carpet welcome in Hanoi. Vietnam then accelerated plans for three cross-border railway projects that Beijing had been seeking for years.
Vietnam has a long history of independence and post-Cold War neutrality. But officials from the region’s democracies now fear that Hanoi is encouraging more “red nationalism” across society and slipping out of its traditional balance between powers.
An alignment or leverage that would make Hanoi more likely to side with China, Russia or North Korea in disputes could lead to a pullback from other partners. South Korea and Japan are Vietnam’s largest sources of foreign investment. Tokyo is building coast guard patrol boats for Vietnam in the hope that they will help monitor and counter Chinese aggression in Asian sea lanes.
In some corners of Washington, too, Vietnam’s choices are facing increased scrutiny. A congressional official said that Congress was briefed this year on a classified assessment of Vietnam’s military acquisitions and upgrades of naval and air defenses.
It was an early warning of growing alarm about the risks of American disengagement in Asia.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is scheduled to make his first official visit to Vietnam in early November. Some Vietnamese and American officials, who requested anonymity to avoid repercussions for addressing sensitive topics, said they hoped that the discussions would revive the two countries’ relationship, or at least prevent further decline.
Along with addressing war legacy issues, like unexploded ordnance, potential purchases are expected to be discussed. Three Vietnamese officials said the C-130s are back in play. Vietnam has also expressed an interest in co-producing unmanned drones — a key component for the outposts it has been fortifying in the South China Sea to fend off Beijing’s competing claims over waterways and the Paracel and Spratly Islands.
Vietnam’s Air Defense and Air Force commander, Maj. Gen. Vu Hong Son, confirmed last month in an essay that major purchases were on the way, including “trainer aircraft, fighter jets, missile systems, antiaircraft guns and new-generation radar systems.”
He did not say where the hardware would come from.
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