Poland’s border closure risks choking EU-China trade - Great news!
A temporary precaution taken during Russia’s recent war games is turning into a shutdown of China–EU rail freight, worth €25 billion annually.
Russia’s military drills may be over, but Poland isn’t relaxing — and has decided to keep its border with Belarus closed indefinitely, severing a €25-billion-a-year trade artery between China and the EU.
Warsaw closed its border with Belarus on Friday to better monitor the large-scale Russian-Belarusian “Zapad” exercise.
But what was billed as a temporary precaution now looks open-ended, with the government citing “concern for the safety of Polish citizens” and adding that “traffic will be restored once the border is fully safe.”
The move comes at a moment of high diplomatic tension, after Russia last week tested Poland's defenses by sending a drone swarm into its air space and amid increasing diplomatic pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump to punish China for helping the Kremlin's war effort in Ukraine. Poland's government said the "logic of trade" was being replaced by the "logic of security."
Crucially, the shutdown hits a trade route that moves 90 percent of rail freight between China and the EU.
On that route, cargo volumes between China and the EU grew 10.6 percent in 2024, while the value of goods jumped nearly 85 percent to €25.07 billion. The corridor now accounts for 3.7 percent of all EU-China trade, up from 2.1 percent a year earlier — a lifeline for e-commerce giants like Temu and Shein.
Polish firms might also take a hit. State-controlled PKP Cargo said short delays could be managed but warned that a prolonged closure would divert trade south, through Kazakhstan, the Caspian and Black Sea and on to Southern Europe or Turkey.
The closure comes just a week after the company launched its first Warsaw–China freight train, carrying goods from several European countries — a symbolic run meant to cement Poland’s role as a hub and raise PKP Cargo’s international profile.
“The complete border closure is a crucial problem — not only for transport and logistics but for the whole economy,” said Artur Kalisiak, strategic projects director at the Transport & Logistics Poland industry association. Some 10,000 Belarusian drivers employed by Polish transport firms are also stuck, he added — unable to return to work in Poland, or even get back home.
All cargo is currently blocked, including time-sensitive shipments like medicine and food. As for alternatives, “you can try via Lithuania or Latvia, but that of course takes more time and more money. And even then, there’s no guarantee those borders will stay open,” he said.
Belarusian opposition outlet Belsat reported on attempts to improvise new supply chains, saying a workaround had been created whereby a loaded truck heads to a terminal in Lithuania’s Kaunas, Poland’s Łódź or Germany’s Duisburg — from where cargo is shifted and then enters Belarus through Lithuanian rail crossings.
“It’s a very difficult situation,” Kalisiak concluded. “The government says it is monitoring the situation and that the border will be reopened when it is safe. This is what we know ... so, from a business perspective, we know nothing.”
“The decision to close the border with Belarus will remain in force until further notice. Further steps on the matter are yet to be decided,” Polish government spokesman Adam Szłapka confirmed to reporters on Wednesday.
With no reopening date in sight, businesses have no clear word on whether they will be compensated.
“Losses will be assessed once we know how long the border will have been closed. At that point, the ministries will be able to prepare an assessment, which will serve as the basis for the government’s decisions on possible state support for individual industrial sectors,” the interior ministry said.
Political chess
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi flew into Warsaw on Monday to talk with his Polish counterpart, Radosław Sikorski.
“It was made very clear during the talks that in this situation, the logic of trade, which is also beneficial for us, is being replaced by the logic of security. And that was expressed very clearly by Minister Sikorski,” Polish foreign ministry spokesperson Paweł Wroński said. He added that the Chinese side had made no direct demands to reopen the border.
Beijing had already said before the ministers met that it hoped Poland would “take effective measures to ensure the safe and smooth operation of the [rail link on the Belarus border] and the stability of international industrial and supply chains,” stressing that the China-Europe Railway Express was a “flagship project” in China’s cooperation with both Poland and the EU.
But China isn't the only player in the game. “There is also the United States, and we have a very close relationship with them. I’m quite sure Washington is more than happy to see the routes closed — at least temporarily — because they have been pressuring the European Union to introduce additional tariffs on China over Russian oil and gas exports to China,” said Piotr Krawczyk, former head of Poland’s Foreign Intelligence Agency.
“I believe they are pleased that instead of tariffs, the main land gateway for Chinese goods is now blocked for a while,” he added. “I’m also quite sure the Americans are smiling and supporting the Polish government in not rushing to reopen it — at least not very soon.”
Europe is also at the table, but as Krawczyk noted, “I haven’t seen any reaction from any country — nothing from the Commission and nothing from the capitals. So maybe Europe as well is not unhappy to see the main gateway blocked.”
“If this gateway is blocked, then they have to use other routes — for example, air transport or maritime transport ... I think, for instance, the ports in Rotterdam and Hamburg would be very happy to receive those goods that can no longer pass through the Polish-Belarusian border,” he added.
As for China’s position, Konrad Popławski, an economist at the Warsaw-based Center for Eastern Studies — a government advisory think tank — said the sums at stake are significant, but not game-changing.
The closure matters more for China’s inland western provinces, he added, which rely heavily on rail links and lack access to seaports. “Still, we are not talking about vast volumes of trade — it is more of a steady trickle important to some industries, but by no means critical overall.”
“The big question is whether the border closure poses a problem of sufficient magnitude — not only for Belarus and Russia, but perhaps also for China — to compel any bigger reaction,” Popławski concluded.
But while the value of trade flowing through the Polish-Belarusian border is substantial, he noted, it’s still not large enough to push Beijing to shift its stance on Moscow or Minsk.
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