Joseph Belbruno Blog

  The Lonely Skepticism of a Bull-Market Skeptic Investors’ enthusiasm for A.I. has converted some longtime Wall Street bears into optimists. Jeremy Grantham is still waiting for the bubble to pop. Source photograph by Vanessa Leroy / Bloomberg / Getty As investor enthusiasm for artificial intelligence, and lately for a Trump Presidency, has been driving the stock market to record highs this year, Jeremy Grantham has been having flashbacks. At the end of the nineteen-nineties, the veteran value investor—one that looks for undervalued stocks—shied away from soaring Internet and technology stocks, believing that their prices had departed from financial reality, and that the market was heading for a crash. Far from thanking him for sounding the alarm, many clients of G.M.O., a Boston-based investment-management firm that Grantham had co-founded, held it responsible for making them miss out on a vertiginous rise in the Nasdaq, which went up by about a hundred and sixty per cent between...

  China’s Economy Is Burdened by Years of Excess. Here’s How Bad It Really Is. China’s go-go days are behind it as the world’s second-largest economy struggles with the bursting of the  biggest real-estate bubble ever . Now, China’s goal of overtaking the U.S. as the world’s largest economy might take decades longer than Beijing expected—if it happens at all. China’s economy today is burdened with excess: Millions of empty or unfinished apartment blocks, trillions of dollars in debt straining local governments and ballooning industrial production driving an export surge that is igniting trade tensions worldwide.  China still has strengths: It dominates global manufacturing and has commanding positions in new technologies, such as electric vehicles and renewable energy. Policymakers have proven adept at handling past crises, and are readying  bold new stimulus  to support the economy. Nonetheless, the scale of the excesses plaguing China’s economy underscores...

  Putin says he saved Russia, but a year of challenges suggests Moscow’s position is precarious President Vladimir Putin during his annual year-end news conference and phone-in in Moscow on Dec. 19. (Maxim Shemetov/Reuters) A quarter-century later, Putin insists he has done just that — and more. As he wrapped up his marathon year-end news conference on Dec. 19, Putin boasted that he had thwarted efforts by the United States and its Western allies to subjugate Russia after the Soviet Union fell apart. “I have not just taken care of it, but I believe we have stepped back from the edge of the abyss,” he declared, in response to a question about Yeltsin’s remark. “I have done everything so that Russia can be an independent and sovereign state that is capable of making decisions in its interests,” Putin said, “rather than in the interests of the countries that were dragging it toward them, patting it on the back, only to use it for their own purposes.” But as 2024 draws to a close, Russ...

LET THIS BE A WARNING AND A SIGN TO ALL ENEMIES OF THE WEST: ISRAEL MUST OBLITERATE THE YEMENI HOUTHI CAPITAL SANAA - JUST AS ROME BURNED DOWN CARTHAGE AND THE US WIPED OUT HIROSHIMA. Israeli ambassador to the UN tells Houthis 'Israel will defend its people' after recent attacks Israel  has warned  Yemen’s   Houthi  rebels that they face the same “miserable fate” as Hamas and Hezbollah if they continue with rocket attacks. Israel’s ambassador to the United Nations,  Danny Danon , said the Iran-backed group would be targeted by Israeli military after recent attacks by the Houthis on Israel. Hours after the warning by Danon, Israel’s military said it had intercepted a missile fired from  Yemen , as air raid alarms were sounded. The Houthis targeted Ben Gurion Airport near Tel Aviv and a power station south of Jerusalem using a hypersonic ballistic missile and a Zulfiqar ballistic missile, respectively, the group’s military spokesperson Yahya Saree said. Danon...

  La forza di Israele E' in generale il rapporto apparentemente così disinvolto di Israele con lo strumento militare e con la guerra, con l’impiego della forza, che tende ad apparirci prima che eticamente riprovevole innanzi tutto come qualcosa di inattuale e perciò di radicalmente «inappropriato» Ascolta l'articolo 6 min i new Il dibattito accesissimo scatenatosi nell’opinione pubblica europea e americana dopo il pogrom del  7 ottobre  riguarda qualcosa che va al di là del giudizio sulla reazione di Israele a quell’evento. Neppure i suoi protagonisti ne hanno forse una piena consapevolezza, ma quel dibattito, con i sentimenti e i risentimenti di cui si nutre, riguarda in realtà l’ebraismo e gli ebrei in quanto tali. Riguarda l’identità ebraica e naturalmente il suo rapporto con la nostra identità, di noi non ebrei intendo: con ciò che noi siamo stati fino a ieri e siamo oggi. Insomma,  l’Occidente cristiano – se è permesso adoperare ancora questa espressione almeno ...

  Finland shows how to deal with Russian sabotage The only way to tackle Putin’s growing targeting of seabed cables and pipes is to confront it Edward Lucas Edward Lucas Once it was German U-boats that threatened our merchant shipping and national survival. Now the submarine menace is back, but this time targeting the vital flows of energy and data that connect the British Isles to our neighbours. Only a smidgen (about 1 per cent) of our internet traffic goes by satellite, the rest through about 60 easily-cut seabed cables no thicker than garden hoses. We also depend on a handful of gas and electricity interconnectors to deal with demand peaks and supply troughs. Island states like ours are the most vulnerable to disruption of these links. A full-scale attack would leave us deaf, blind, numb, cold, broke, hungry — and defeated. Russia’s intensifying efforts off Britain’s coast have rung alarm bells in Whitehall. Its research vessel Yantar, with formidable drones, sensors and other ...

Poll rerun over Putin ‘influence’ splits Romania Cancelled election result after alleged Russian social media plot highlights threat to EU VALENTINA POP — BUCHAREST Additional reporting by Laura Pitel · 30 Dec 2024 Romania’s shock decision to annul its presidential vote over alleged Russian meddling has divided the fledgling democracy, highlighting the risks of failing to prevent foreign interference in European elections. Authorities said presidential candidate Călin Georgescu, who has praised Russian leader Vladimir Putin and vowed to jail political opponents, benefited from a sophisticated social media campaign that could have only been orchestrated by Russia. With Romanians having just celebrated 35 years since Communist dictator Nicolae Ceaușescu was toppled, citizens are now grappling with how to react to a far-right politician’s surprise win in the first round of the now cancelled poll. Families and friends have taken opposing sides on supporting Georgescu and seeing his victory...

  What the ‘year of democracy’ taught us A bumper 12 months for elections saw more than a billion people vote in dozens of countries. The results show widespread anger and frustration at incumbents, and growing support for populists on the left and right. By John Burn-Murdoch · 30 Dec 2024 It was heralded as the year of democracy. With more than one and a half billion ballots cast in elections across 73 countries, 2024 offered a rare opportunity to take the social and political temperature of almost half of the world’s population. The results are now in, and they have delivered a damning verdict on holders of public office. The incumbent in every one of the 12 developed western countries that held national elections in 2024 lost vote share at the polls, the first time this has ever happened in almost 120 years of modern democracy. In Asia, even the hegemonic governments of India and Japan were not spared the ill wind. Incumbent or otherwise, centrists were often the losers as voter...

  I due scogli per l'asse Meloni-Trump di Federico Rampini 28 dic 2024 | 21:05 Ascolta l'articolo 6 min i La leader italiana è tra i favoriti nei rapporti con il neopresidente americano: ma restano gli ostacoli sull’economia e la difesa È diffusa l’opinione, tra osservatori americani o europei, che l’Italia sia destinata ad avere un felice rapporto con il Trump Due. Giorgia Meloni viene annoverata nel trio dei leader «vincitori» dopo la rielezione del repubblicano, insieme con il presidente polacco e il premier ungherese. Di questi Paesi l’Italia è il più grande, l’unico fondatore dell’Unione euroxpea, ed è la seconda potenza manifatturiera del continente. Tutte ragioni per avere una posizione privilegiata nel nuovo capitolo delle relazioni che si aprirà dopo l’Inauguration Day del 20 gennaio. Partendo da aspettative elevate c’è il rischio di delusioni.  Il 2025 presenterà dei test ardui per l’asse Trump-Meloni. L’affinità politica e culturale è evidente. Così come la simpatia...

  Elon Musk Is a National Security Risk Dec. 29, 2024,  6:00 a.m. ET Credit Credit... By Gabriel Gabriel Garble Listen to this article · 6:17 min  Learn more It is now fair to ask the question: Is Elon Musk a national security risk? According to numerous  interviews  and remarks, Mr. Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency co-leader, Vivek Ramaswamy, once appeared to believe he was. In May 2023, Mr. Ramaswamy went so far as to publicly  state , “I have no reason to think Elon won’t jump like a circus monkey when Xi Jinping calls in the hour of need,” a reference to China’s leader. In a separate X post targeting Mr. Musk,  he wrote , “the U.S. needs leaders who aren’t in China’s pocket.” Mr. Ramaswamy has since walked back his numerous public criticisms of Mr. Musk, but he was right to raise concerns. According to  news reports , Mr. Musk and his rocket company, SpaceX,  face federal reviews  from the Air Force, the Defense D...