Government debt is the real threat to central bank independence Ryan Bourne President Trump has a new nickname for Jerome Powell: “Mr Too Late”. The US president accuses the Federal Reserve chair of being “behind the curve” in cutting interest rates, just as he and his colleagues were too slow to tighten during inflation’s resurgence. Last week, Trump toured the Fed’s building renovations, complaining about cost overruns. The unsubtle message: We don’t like Powell’s monetary policy, so we’re hunting for other reasons to sack him. This political pressure to lower interest rates alarms former Fed chairs Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen. Writing in the New York Times, they state that “keeping politics out of monetary policy decisions leads to better economic outcomes”. They’re right, but doesn’t their argument miss the wood for the trees? In the long term, the graver danger to central bank autonomy isn’t Trump’s tweeting, it’s US politicians’ borrowing. Unless something drastically cha...
Posts
Débats L’Europe doit instaurer sans attendre des tarifs douaniers sur les géants du numérique Par-delà l’accord, néfaste pour l’Europe, conclu entre l’UE et les États-Unis, il est temps de penser aux moyens de bâtir notre propre puissance, estime l’ancien premier ministre *. Il dresse une série de mesures pour réinstaurer un rapport de force face à Donald Trump. 5 min • Gabriel Attal Dimanche, l’Union européenne a conclu un accord avec les États-Unis. Cet accord, peut-on s’en réjouir ? Non. Non, parce qu’il n’a pour objet que de « limiter la casse » dans la guerre commerciale absurde enclenchée par les États-Unis. Ne faisons pas mine de le découvrir aujourd’hui : les discussions ont été engagées face à la menace américaine de droits de douane, dans une situation par nature déséquilibrée. Alors oui, il est impossible de se réjouir de cet accord. Mais cessons de perdre du temps à vilipender tel ou tel. Personne ne peut affirmer ...
Une-FIG Le stigmate de la soumission 2 min C eux qui, en Europe, acceptent comme un moindre mal l’imposition unilatérale de droits de douane de 15 % et plus par les États-Unis, pensent avoir passé un accord avec un partenaire fiable, qui leur assure la stabilité et la visibilité nécessaires à leurs affaires. Un doute devrait pourtant les effleurer : le rançonnage et la vente forcée sont-ils les méthodes d’un chef d’État soucieux des intérêts de son pays ou celles d’un mafieux sur la parole duquel il ne faut pas trop compter ? La lettre du 12 juillet, dans laquelle Donald Trump menaçait l’UE de barrières commerciales encore plus élevées, stipule : « Ces droits pourront être modifiés, à la hausse ou à la baisse, selon l’évolution de nos relations. » Trump a testé le ventre mou de l’Europe et rien ne dit qu’il résistera à la tentation d’en abuser encore. La teneur des commentaires aux États-Unis en atteste : le président, ses suppo...
Una vera riforma elettorale Dalle indiscrezioni fin qui trapelate circa le nuove regole, allo studio non sembra proprio che vi sia da parte di nessuno l’intenzione di operare una vera svolta nell’unica direzione in cui i cittadini decidono da chi vogliono essere rappresentati: e cioè il collegio uninominale maggioritario a turno unico Ascolta l'articolo 5 min i new Nell’indifferenza dell’opinione pubblica i vertici dell’intero schieramento parlamentare stanno preparando una nuova legge elettorale. Con il sistema elettorale attuale, come si sa, sono i vertici dei partiti a stabilire i candidati nei collegi uninominali maggioritari — candidati che possono essere anche di coalizione, quindi ancora di più diviene necessario l’accordo tra i partiti — ; e sono sempre i suddetti vertici dei partiti a stabilire l’ordine (da parte dell’elettore immutabile) con cui ciascun candidato è inserito nelle liste proporzionali, e dal quale dipende la sua possibilità di essere o no elet...
Europe’s summer of humiliation The writer is co-CEO of the Brussels-based Itinera Institute and author of ‘Superpower Europe: The European Union’s silent revolution’ Marc De Vos · 31 July 2025 Europe entered the summer with the prospect of a transatlantic divorce looming as the futures of Ukraine, Nato and trade remained up in the air. With their beach holidays beckoning, European leaders may now be taking a sigh of relief. The US president who called Nato obsolete, promised to end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours and declared the EU a foe, has instead taken their side — for now. But to placate Donald Trump’s instincts, Europe has had to bow down and pay up, no fewer than three times. First for Nato, pledging hundreds of billions to additional defence and security spending. Then for Ukraine, committing to paying the US for weapons Ukraine needs. And this week for trade, allowing the US to unilaterally multiply tariffs even as Europe promises more than $1.3tn in purchases of America...
US Treasury to sell more short-term debt in extension of Biden-era policy KATE DUGUID — NEW YORK · 31 July 2025 The US Treasury will issue more shortterm debt to help fund its widening budget deficit, a continuation of a Biden-era policy that Treasury secretary Scott Bessent had previously disavowed. The Treasury department said yesterday that it would keep the size of its auctions of longer-dated bonds steady over the next “several quarters”. This suggests a vast increase in issuance of shorter-term debt — Treasury bills that mature in anything between a week and a year — to meet the $1tn that the department needs this quarter to keep the government running. Despite disavowing it before he took office, Bessent has adopted the debt management strategy of his predecessor, Janet Yellen. Skewing its debt issuance to more shorter-dated bonds allows the US government to step up its borrowing without sending yields on longer dated bonds higher. The yields — which move inversely to pric...
Reasons for caution amid Wall Street’s triumphant surge Mohamed El-Erian Mohamed El-Erian is president of Queens’ College, Cambridge, and an adviser to Allianz and Gramercy · 31 July 2025 The American stock market has been on an extraordinary ascent, buoyed by investors’ faith in robust corporate balance sheets, surging earnings and a vision of future productivity gains. This exuberance has been underpinned by a US economy that has proved remarkably resilient. Yet, with most traditional valuation indicators now flashing amber, the path forward hinges on a delicate interplay of economic and financial influences. This week, Wall Street’s S&P 500 closed at another record high — its 15th of the year — in a climb that has included the fastest recovery from a market correction of more than 15 per cent, according to Goldman Sachs. While an important share of this gain has been attributed to a handful of familiar tech groups, the broader market has also registered respectable returns...