Trump's appetite for Russian appeasement puts the world at risk
US president's posture could embolden China to take harder line with American allies
U.S. President Donald Trump appears keen to appease Russian President Vladimir Putin, potentially stoking global instability. (Nikkei montage/Source photos by Reuters)
VILNIUS, Lithuania -- Ukraine has arrived at a critical juncture in its struggle to halt Russian aggression. On Nov. 21, U.S. President Donald Trump pressured Kyiv to accept a peace plan that aligned dangerously close to Moscow's demands. By requiring territorial concessions, a reduction of the Ukrainian military and the abandonment of NATO aspirations, the proposal was tantamount to surrender.
Following urgent consultations with Ukrainian officials, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio managed to steer the proposal back toward a more neutral stance. While the immediate threat of a forced capitulation has been averted, Ukraine's situation remains precarious.
This episode has once again cast into sharp relief Trump's instinct to appease Russia. It is a posture rooted in his fundamental political nature -- and one that is unlikely to change.
If Washington softens its stance on Russia, however, China will inevitably sense an opportunity. This raises the significant risk that Beijing will take a harder line against U.S. allies such as Japan.
Assessments from those who have interacted with Trump suggest three distinct reasons why he refuses to take a tough stance against Russian aggression.
First is his conviction that the world is governed by the law of the jungle. It is a worldview where "might makes right," rendering international rules and ethics irrelevant. Under this premise, global politics are the domain of powerful nations, to which smaller states must submit. This logic explains his attempt to force a settlement favorable to Russia.
Second is extreme pragmatism. Trump likely genuinely believes that rather than grinding on with an unwinnable war, it is better for both sides to strike a deal quickly and pivot to reconstruction. This reflects a "cut your losses" mentality in the real estate business: It is better to unload a distressed property before the deficit balloons.
This transactional logic extends further. Trump sees a clear U.S. interest in normalizing relations with Moscow to open up business opportunities in Russia, including real estate and resource development.
Third is Trump's massive ego. He appears driven by a desire to fulfill his campaign pledge of a ceasefire and, ultimately, to earn a Nobel Peace Prize.
Should this approach genuinely enhance global stability, it might be worth considering. However, Trump's "Russia appeasement syndrome" threatens to plunge the world into deeper instability.
If the U.S. turns a blind eye to the invasion of Ukraine, Russia will undoubtedly be emboldened to escalate military provocations against Europe and beyond. In the end, Trump's ambition to be a "peacemaker" will be the ultimate casualty.
This danger is already escalating. From Nov. 20 to Nov. 21, I attended the Vilnius Forum, an annual security conference in Vilnius, the capital of Lithuania, a country that shares a border with Russia.
The urgent focus among the gathered policymakers and experts was Moscow's intensifying military provocation. Russia is ramping up attacks that fall just short of actual war -- so-called "gray zone" tactics -- against the Baltic states of Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia, Poland and the Nordic region.
"In our neighborhood, authoritarian regimes are constantly inventing new gray-zone tactics," Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda said in his opening remarks. "From the incursions of Russian drones and Belarusian balloons into our airspace, to the disruption of undersea infrastructure in the Baltic Sea by the shadow fleet, and, most recently, the destruction of the Polish railway track, these are not random acts of harassment, but coordinated and escalating efforts."
Lithuania has responded by establishing an interagency National Crisis Management Centre to monitor these threats around the clock. According to Vilmantas Vitkauskas, the organization's head, Russia has escalated its activities since February of last year, moving beyond cyberattacks and information warfare to operations directly targeting human lives and infrastructure.
"Lithuania has experienced a series of incidents, including assassination attempts, arson attacks on logistics infrastructure, and cases where explosives were concealed in air cargo," Vitkauskas said. "Disruptive attacks on aviation using drones and balloons from Russia and Belarus have also increased.
"This year alone, Lithuanian airports have been closed 18 times -- about half due to drones and the rest due to balloons."
I experienced these threats firsthand. On the night of Nov. 23, just as I was preparing to depart from Vilnius International Airport, an incursion by balloons launched from Belarus forced a runway closure. I was stranded at the airport overnight, finally departing some 16 hours later. The experience was exhausting, and that is exactly the message the attack's instigator intended to send.
Russia knows it cannot match NATO in conventional military power. Its strategy, therefore, is to flood Europe with violent sabotage and harassment operations. The goal is to foment anxiety and fatigue among the public, slowly eroding the collective will to oppose Russian aggression.
Turning to Asia, China is visibly increasing its military exercises and other menacing activities. Following Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's recent remarks regarding a potential Taiwan contingency, Beijing has ramped up economic and diplomatic coercion against Japan.
While the geopolitical context differs from Europe, the parallels are striking. China has undoubtedly read Trump's instincts: He prioritizes transactional relationships between great powers over the rule of law or traditional alliances. Beijing has likely calculated that bullying U.S. allies like Japan will not invite significant blowback from the American leader.
Chinese President Xi Jinping must have deepened this confidence during his phone conversation with Trump on Nov. 24, amid mounting tensions with Japan. There is no evidence to suggest Trump strongly defended Takaichi regarding the Taiwan issue or demanded that Xi halt his hard-line stance toward Tokyo.
As recently as this summer, Beijing harbored anxiety about how the second Trump administration might act. According to Japanese government officials, Chinese officials, in an effort to reduce friction, had quietly signaled openness to policy dialogue with Japan. However, the strategic calculus has clearly shifted.
Trump's stated goal of ending futile wars and preventing a third global conflict is laudable. Yet, peace cannot be achieved through the appeasement of Russia or China. The current reality in Europe stands as a stark warning of where that road leads.
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