Joseph Belbruno Blog

  The PM has a doctrine — but it’s delusional Starmer’s faith in ‘international law’ is no defence against our enemies Dominic Lawson Dominic Lawson A mystery pervades the Palace of Westminster — and, to the extent that it cares, perplexes the country as a whole. What does the prime minister really believe in? What are his irreducible principles? He became leader of his party by swearing his friendship and political affiliation with Jeremy Corbyn, and then remorselessly discarded all the policy “pledges” which had accompanied that impersonation. In government Starmer has executed so many sharp U-turns, he might be known as the Great Tergiversator. Nevertheless, there is something that consistently animates Sir Keir, so much so that he wrote a 938-page book on the topic: European human rights law. Or, as he expressed it to his biographer, Tom Baldwin: “There is no version of my life that does not largely revolve around me being a human rights lawyer.” As it happens, the matter of ou...

  China’s Currency is Now Facing Substantial Appreciation Pressure China wants a slow, managed move in its currency. The market—and China’s trading partners—may not be as patient. Whitney Shepardson Senior Fellow The conventional wisdom among China watchers has long been that China will not allow a substantial appreciation of the yuan because its still hobbled domestic economy needs the boost from exports.  George Magnus wrote  on the site formerly known as Twitter: “[China’s post-Covid export boom] is not so much a source of pride or success, as reflection of weak domestic demand, and Beijing’s inability or unwillingness to address it...” And as a result, “while the USD [exchange] rate [of the RMB] has risen a bit, the RMB remains structurally weak. And will [remain so]” After all, net exports have delivered something like a third of China’s reported growth in each of the last two years, and perhaps more, as many suspect the other components of China’s growth are over-st...

  Trump’s ‘new world order’ is simply playing by the old rules Although the US president ‘chickened out’ of plans to grab Greenland or impose tariffs on Nato countries, it was not love of international treaties or alliances that dissuaded him but narrow, calculated pragmatism, writes Gerard Baker Gerard Baker Next image  › The world has been treated to a double helping of Taco in the past ten days. The acronym traders created to describe how “Trump Always Chickens Out” of extreme policy proposals when confronted with challenging realities got a good airing amid two apparent climbdowns by the American president. Having warned Iran earlier this month that the US was “locked and loaded” and ready to strike if Tehran continued to suppress domestic protests, Donald Trump seemed to back off. With tens of thousands of protesters reported to be dead, the US still hasn’t fired a shot. Then, as European leaders braced for him to bury the transatlantic alliance that has existed for 80 ye...

  Danger of Carney’s ‘middle power’ manifesto Europe can’t defend itself or police its own neighbourhood without the US. That’s a truth no Davos speech will change Fraser Nelson @FRASERNELSON Fraser Nelson Next image  › A star was born in Davos last week. Everyone knew Donald Trump was coming to denounce the global elite and their liberal order. But no one expected Mark Carney, Canada’s prime minister, to emerge as the anti- Trump with a speech that stole the conference. He invoked a famous essay by Vaclav Havel, the Czech playwright-turned-president, about living under the lies of communism and compared this to the US rulesbased order. It’s time to admit those days are gone, he said. Stop living the lie. Instead, “middle powers” can get together and build something new. Carney was as eloquent as Trump was rambling; as considered as his counterpart is reckless. The Havel reference was perfectly pitched to my generation, who saw communism collapse and the liberal order emerge. ...

  'Some form of crisis is almost inevitable': The $38 trillion national debt will soon be growing faster than the U.S. economy itself, watchdog warns | Fortune The United States national debt has reached a precarious milestone, hitting 100% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and placing the nation on a trajectory that could trigger six distinct types of fiscal crises, according to an ominous new warning issued Thursday by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB). Recommended Video With the national debt now effectively equal to the size of the entire U.S. economy, the nonpartisan watchdog’s latest report, “ What Would a Fiscal Crisis Look Like ?” outlined a dangerous future ahead. “If the national debt continues to grow faster than the economy,” the report said, “the country could ultimately experience a financial crisis, an inflation crisis, an austerity crisis, a currency crisis, a default crisis, a gradual crisis, or some combination of crises. Any of these would c...